Brazil's Coffee Production Set for Record Harvest in 2026

Brazil's national crop agency, Conab, has projected that the country's coffee output will reach a record 66.2 million 60-kilogram bags in the 2026 harvest, representing a significant 17.1% increase from the previous year. This forecast includes a notable rise in Arabica coffee production, expected to grow by over 23% to 44.1 million bags, attributed to the biennial "on-year" cycle. Additionally, robusta coffee output is anticipated to increase by 6.4% to 22.1 million bags. Conab attributes this positive outlook to favorable weather conditions, technological advancements, and improved management practices in coffee cultivation.

World’s largest coffee producer set to harvest more beans than everBrazil expects record coffee harvest in 2026Coffee imports increased by more than 36% last year as prices of coffee beans soared in the aftermat. .

Minas Gerais, Brazil's leading Arabica-producing state, is expected to see its total coffee production rise by 26% to 32.4 million bags, benefiting from better rainfall distribution and enhanced plant health. Espirito Santo, the top producer of robusta coffee, is projected to increase its output by 9% to 19 million bags. Despite the anticipated record production, Conab warns that coffee prices are likely to remain elevated due to increasing global demand.

World’s largest coffee producer set to harvest more beans than everBrazil expects record coffee harvest in 2026Coffee imports increased by more than 36% last year as prices of coffee beans soared in the aftermat. .

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts global coffee consumption to reach a record 173 million bags, which may sustain high prices even with Brazil's increased output. The dynamics of the coffee market are further complicated by production challenges in other major coffee-producing countries, such as Vietnam, where adverse weather conditions have affected robusta harvests.

World’s largest coffee producer set to harvest more beans than ever

While the forecast for Brazil's coffee production is optimistic, some analysts caution that the reliance on favorable weather and technological improvements may not be sustainable in the long term. Concerns about climate change and its impact on agricultural productivity remain a significant issue for the coffee industry.

World’s largest coffee producer set to harvest more beans than ever

Conab's report emphasizes that "more favorable weather conditions recorded throughout the crop cycle, along with the adoption of technologies and good management practices in the fields, are influencing an improvement in productivity." However, the agency also notes that despite the expected record production, coffee prices are anticipated to remain high due to growing consumer demand.

World’s largest coffee producer set to harvest more beans than ever

There is a discrepancy in the outlook for coffee prices, with some sources suggesting that high prices will persist despite increased production, while others indicate that prices may stabilize as supply increases. The exact impact of these dynamics on the global coffee market remains to be seen.

Coffee imports increased by more than 36% last year as prices of coffee beans soared in the aftermat. .

As Brazil prepares for its record coffee harvest, stakeholders in the coffee industry will need to navigate the complexities of market demand, pricing, and the potential impacts of climate variability on future production. The upcoming harvest will be closely monitored by both producers and consumers alike, as it could reshape trade flows and pricing strategies in the global coffee market.

World’s largest coffee producer set to harvest more beans than ever