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50% Chance of El Niño Rising Temperatures by 2027

2/8/2026

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Summary

Story summary

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology warn a potential El Niño could form this year and raise 2027 temperatures.
Experts place a 50/50 chance of development by mid-2026.
Dr. Zeke Hausfather notes that a prior El Niño raised global temperatures by 0.12°C in 2024.
If a new El Niño occurs, it may peak between November and January, affecting 2027 temperatures.

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Story summary

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology warn a potential El Niño could form this year and raise 2027 temperatures.
Experts place a 50/50 chance of development by mid-2026.
Dr. Zeke Hausfather notes that a prior El Niño raised global temperatures by 0.12°C in 2024.
If a new El Niño occurs, it may peak between November and January, affecting 2027 temperatures.