Belarus's Role in the Ukraine Conflict: Zelensky's Warnings on the Oreshnik Missile

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has raised alarms regarding the deployment of Russia's Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile in Belarus, warning that this could further entangle the country in the ongoing war against Ukraine. During a press briefing on February 6, 2024, Zelensky stated that Russia has completed "preparatory, technical work" related to the missile on Belarusian soil, which he described as a significant escalation risk. He emphasized that the use of the Oreshnik could effectively draw Belarus into the conflict, labeling such a scenario as a "great tragedy."

Kyiv Independent

The Oreshnik missile, believed to be a modified version of the Soviet-era Rubezh missile, has already been utilized by Russia in attacks against Ukraine, including a notable strike on Dnipro in November 2024. Zelensky highlighted that Belarus has been instrumental in facilitating Russian military operations, including the establishment of air corridors for drone strikes against Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

Kyiv Independent

Zelensky's concerns extend to Belarus's broader role in the conflict, particularly under the leadership of President Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994. Belarus has provided both political and military support to Russia since the onset of the full-scale war in Ukraine. Zelensky noted that Russian strike drones have been operating from Belarusian territory, supported by technical equipment such as antennas, which Ukraine has actively targeted to mitigate their effectiveness.

Kyiv Independent

The Ukrainian government has taken steps to counter these threats, but Zelensky indicated that addressing the Oreshnik missile issue poses a more complex challenge. He expressed hope that Belarusian opposition figures, including exiled leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, would communicate the risks of Belarus's involvement in the war to the international community.

Kyiv Independent

Zelensky articulated a clear message regarding the implications of Belarus's potential full involvement in the war, stating, "If Russia manages to fully draw another country into this war — Belarus — it would be a great tragedy." He underscored the importance of Belarusian voices in opposing this trajectory, urging Tsikhanouskaya and others to inform European nations about the situation.

Kyiv Independent

While Zelensky's warnings highlight the risks of Belarus's deeper involvement in the conflict, some analysts argue that the situation is complex and that Belarus's military capabilities may not significantly alter the balance of power in the war. Critics suggest that the focus on the Oreshnik missile could overshadow other pressing issues within the conflict.

Kyiv Independent

There is a lack of consensus on the extent of the Oreshnik missile's deployment in Belarus, with some sources indicating it is already present, while others suggest that its operational status remains uncertain. This discrepancy highlights the challenges in obtaining accurate intelligence on military developments in the region.

Kyiv Independent

• "One use of 'Oreshnik' is that you have been drawn into the war." — Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine

Kyiv Independent

• "We will certainly do everything to ensure that Oreshnik does not even begin to operate. This is a threat to us." — Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine

Kyiv Independent

• "If Russia manages to fully draw another country into this war — Belarus — it would be a great tragedy." — Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine

Kyiv Independent

As the situation evolves, the implications of Belarus's military alignment with Russia remain a critical concern for Ukraine and its allies.