Bangladesh's Upcoming Election and Referendum: A Path to Instability?

As Bangladesh approaches its general election and a controversial referendum on February 12, 2026, concerns are mounting regarding the potential for political instability. The referendum seeks to implement recommendations from the July Charter, a document aimed at constitutional reform following the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Key proposals include enhancing the powers of the largely ceremonial President and curtailing the authority of the Prime Minister. Critics argue that the public lacks understanding of the referendum's implications, which could lead to heightened tensions and prolonged instability.

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The July Charter was developed by the National Consensus Commission, which consulted various political parties but notably excluded many electoral candidates from the drafting process. Andaleev Rahman Partho, a candidate backed by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), expressed concerns that the referendum undermines the parliamentary process. He emphasized the need for any changes to be made through the next parliament rather than through a referendum, which he believes could dilute the prominence of the national parliament.

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The Awami League, historically a dominant political force in Bangladesh, is barred from contesting this election due to a crackdown following the mass uprising that led to Sheikh Hasina's removal. Many long-time supporters, like Abu Bakkar, find themselves politically adrift, uncertain about which candidates to support. A recent survey indicates that over 90% of voters intend to participate, with a significant portion of former Awami League supporters now leaning towards the BNP or Jamaat-e-Islami.

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Experts, including Shafqat Munir from the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies, have criticized the complexity and opacity of the referendum process. They argue that many voters, particularly in rural areas, are unaware of what they are voting for, raising questions about the legitimacy of the referendum. Partho echoed this sentiment, noting that the electorate is primarily focused on electing parliamentary representatives rather than understanding the referendum's objectives.

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In the lead-up to the election, Sheikh Hasina has called for a boycott, a sentiment echoed by several Awami League-aligned organizations. Despite this, grassroots support remains significant, with many supporters expressing intentions to vote, even if they are uncertain about their party's official stance. Political analysts suggest that the absence of Awami League leaders has weakened the party's influence over its base, potentially leading to a split in votes between the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami.

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There are discrepancies regarding the level of public awareness about the referendum and the election. While some sources indicate a lack of understanding among voters, others suggest that a significant portion of the electorate is engaged and ready to participate. The Awami League's strategy remains unclear, with reports of confusion among its supporters about whether to participate in the election or to boycott it.

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• “Some of the political parties were consulted while making the July Charter, but we were not involved in the drafting process in the way that was necessary.” — Andaleev Rahman Partho, Candidate, Bangladesh Jatiyo Party

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• “People are focused on the election, they want to elect the next members of the parliament.” — Andaleev Rahman Partho

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• “The questions asked in the referendum and the process of executing the referendum is complex and in some cases opaque.” — Shafqat Munir, Senior Fellow, Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies

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• “These elections will not be accepted by the people or the international community,” — AFM Bahauddin Nasim, Joint General Secretary, Awami League

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As Bangladesh prepares for this pivotal moment, the interplay between the referendum and the election could significantly shape the nation's political future.

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