Lockheed Martin's F-35 Projections and Regional Air Power Dynamics

At the 2026 Singapore Airshow, Lockheed Martin projected that U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific could operate nearly 300 F-35 fighter jets by 2035. This projection reflects a significant shift in regional air power dynamics, particularly in response to China's military modernization efforts. The F-35 is increasingly viewed not just as a fighter jet but as a critical component of a unified sensor network among allies, including Japan, Australia, and South Korea.

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Lockheed Martin's emphasis on interoperability highlights the expectation that these aircraft will be utilized in a combined air campaign, where data and situational awareness are shared in real-time across allied forces. Japan plans to acquire 147 F-35s, Australia operates 72, and South Korea has inducted 40, with additional purchases anticipated. Singapore is also set to receive its first F-35B aircraft, marking its entry as the first Southeast Asian nation to operate a fifth-generation fighter.

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Despite the growing interest in the F-35 among Pacific allies, Canada’s commitment to purchasing 88 F-35s is uncertain. Prime Minister Mark Carney's recent pivot towards exploring alternatives, such as Sweden's JAS 39 Gripen, has raised concerns about Canada’s alignment with U.S. defense strategies. This shift comes amid threats from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding potential tariffs on Canadian imports if Canada continues to engage with China. The situation underscores the complexities of maintaining defense interoperability within North America.

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Critics argue that Canada’s potential move away from the F-35 could weaken North American defense collaboration, particularly within the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD). Concerns have been raised about the implications of mixing F-35s with Gripens, which may hinder operational effectiveness in joint missions. Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade disputes between the U.S. and China complicate the strategic landscape for Canada and its allies.

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In parallel, China is rapidly expanding its military capabilities, including the development of the Chengdu J-20 and J-35A stealth fighters. While these advancements reflect China's growing industrial capacity, experts caution that the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) still lacks the operational experience and integrated combat doctrine that the U.S. Air Force has developed over decades. The J-35A, in particular, is being positioned as a competitor to the F-35, with claims of advanced sensing and targeting capabilities.

Forget the J-20 and J-35A: China’s Stealth Fighters are No Match for F-22 or F-351945 -19fortyfive1945 -19fortyfive

The projected increase in F-35s among U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific signifies a strategic response to China's military modernization. However, Canada's wavering commitment to the F-35 program introduces uncertainty into the regional defense framework. As both the U.S. and China continue to enhance their military capabilities, the dynamics of air power in the Indo-Pacific will remain a critical area of focus for global security. The outcome of Canada’s defense decisions will likely influence the broader trajectory of U.S.-Canada relations and the effectiveness of allied operations in the region.

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