Malaysia's Earthquake Risk Assessment for the Next Decade

Malaysia's Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability Minister, Datuk Seri Arthur Joseph Kurup, has announced that the country is projected to experience a low to moderate risk of earthquake activity over the next decade. This assessment is based on continuous monitoring by the Department of Minerals and Geoscience Malaysia (JMG), historical records, and seismic activity patterns. The minister's remarks were made in response to a parliamentary inquiry from Datuk Iskandar Dzulkarnain Abdul Khalid, the Member of Parliament for Kuala Kangsar.

Malaysia’s earthquake risk assessed as low to moderate over next decadeThe Straits Times

Malaysia's geological stability is attributed to its location on the Sunda Shelf and outside the Pacific Ring of Fire. While this positioning provides a relatively stable geological environment, Kurup cautioned that the country is still subject to tectonic stress from the interactions of major plates in the region. Sabah has been identified as the area with the highest seismic activity, where moderate to strong earthquakes could occur. In contrast, Peninsular Malaysia is assessed to have a lower risk, with any potential tremors unlikely to exceed a magnitude of 6.0.

Malaysia’s earthquake risk assessed as low to moderate over next decadeThe Straits Times

The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment emphasizes the importance of ongoing surveillance and preparedness measures, particularly in regions like Sabah. Kurup noted that, despite the low risk, the possibility of earthquakes cannot be entirely dismissed. Continuous monitoring indicates that minor tremors are expected to occur sporadically as part of the natural release of tectonic energy. This information will be utilized for risk assessment and national preparedness planning.

Malaysia’s earthquake risk assessed as low to moderate over next decade

Kurup highlighted that the long-term effects of earthquakes on Malaysia's landforms could be significant. He explained that repeated seismic tremors may reactivate ancient fault lines and induce micro-structural changes in rock formations. Additionally, from a geomorphological perspective, earthquake events may alter river morphology and permanently affect slope stability, as evidenced by changes observed in the Ranau area following the 2015 earthquake.

The Straits TimesMalaysia’s earthquake risk assessed as low to moderate over next decade

While the assessment indicates a low to moderate risk, some experts may argue that the potential for stronger seismic activity in Sabah warrants more robust preparedness measures. Critics may call for increased investment in infrastructure resilience and public education on earthquake preparedness, particularly in high-risk areas.

Malaysia’s earthquake risk assessed as low to moderate over next decade

In his statements, Kurup reiterated the need for continuous monitoring and preparedness planning, stating, “This information will serve as a basis for risk assessment and national preparedness planning.” He also acknowledged the limitations of current technology, noting that no methods exist to predict the exact timing of earthquakes.

Malaysia’s earthquake risk assessed as low to moderate over next decade

• “Based on continuous monitoring data conducted by the Minerals and Geoscience Department , the risk level of earthquake occurrences over the next 10 years is assessed to be within the low to moderate range, taking into account historical records, seismic activity patterns, and the country’s tectonic setting,” — Datuk Seri Arthur Joseph Kurup, Minister of Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability

The Straits Times

• “For Peninsular Malaysia, although the possibility of an earthquake cannot be completely ruled out, analysis of empirical data and historical events indicates that any tremor is unlikely to exceed a magnitude of 6.0,” — Datuk Seri Arthur Joseph Kurup

Malaysia’s earthquake risk assessed as low to moderate over next decade

• “This stability must be viewed in relative terms, as the nation still experiences tectonic stress resulting from the interaction of major plates in the region,” — Datuk Seri Arthur Joseph Kurup

Malaysia’s earthquake risk assessed as low to moderate over next decade

In conclusion, while Malaysia's earthquake risk remains low to moderate, ongoing monitoring and preparedness are essential, particularly in regions like Sabah that may experience stronger seismic activity.

Malaysia’s earthquake risk assessed as low to moderate over next decade