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Russia's Oil Exports Shift: India Down, China Up

2/11/2026

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Russia's Oil Shifts

Russia's oil exports to India averaged 900,000 barrels per day in February, down from over 2 million in mid-2023.
Exports to China rose to 2.2 million bpd, easing the amount of Russian crude at sea.
January output dropped nearly 300,000 bpd below Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+) limits.
Tankers are increasingly showing interim destinations, complicating tracking efforts.
The changes reflect sanctions pressure and shifting global demand.

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Russia's Revenue Crisis

Sanctions by the United States and European Union have reduced Russia's oil and gas revenues to multi-year lows.
In January, state revenues dropped to 393 billion rubles (about $5.1 billion), the lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic.
To cope, the Kremlin has raised taxes and increased borrowing, actions that may hinder economic growth.
Experts say financial pressures could push Russia to reconsider its military strategy, though a peace deal remains unlikely.

History

Historical Context

The 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia triggered severe international sanctions, significantly reducing its oil revenues by over 50%. By January 2023, revenues had plummeted to 393 billion rubles, forcing Russia to pivot its oil exports to India and China. These economic pressures may compel Russia to reassess its military strategies, underscoring the long-term impact of geopolitical conflicts on energy markets.

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Russia's Oil Shifts

Russia's oil exports to India averaged 900,000 barrels per day in February, down from over 2 million in mid-2023.
Exports to China rose to 2.2 million bpd, easing the amount of Russian crude at sea.
January output dropped nearly 300,000 bpd below Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+) limits.
Tankers are increasingly showing interim destinations, complicating tracking efforts.
The changes reflect sanctions pressure and shifting global demand.

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