White House Prepares for Lackluster January Jobs Report

Top White House officials are bracing for a disappointing jobs report set to be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is expected to show a slowdown in hiring for January 2026. Economists predict the U.S. economy added approximately 70,000 jobs, a modest increase from December's 50,000. However, White House aides, including Peter Navarro, senior trade adviser, have cautioned that the actual numbers could be even lower due to the administration's deportation policies and a declining labor force. Navarro emphasized the need to adjust expectations for job growth, suggesting that the monthly figures may now hover around 50,000, contrasting sharply with the six-figure gains seen during the Biden administration.

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The anticipated report comes as President Donald Trump faces mounting pressure regarding his economic performance, with a recent NPR/PBS News/MARIST survey indicating that 59% of respondents disapprove of his handling of the economy. This discontent is compounded by the administration's ongoing efforts to deport undocumented workers, which Navarro argues has reduced the number of jobs the economy needs to sustain. Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, echoed this sentiment, stating that high productivity and a shrinking labor force due to deportations could lead to lower job numbers.

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Despite the White House's narrative, some economists challenge the administration's reasoning. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, criticized the notion that demographic changes alone account for the weak job market, suggesting it distracts from the impact of immigration and trade policies. He pointed to a significant decline in manufacturing jobs as evidence of deeper issues within the economy. Other analysts, such as Gregory Daco and Lydia Boussour from EY-Parthenon, predict that while services employment may rise, the goods-producing sectors will continue to struggle, particularly in manufacturing.

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The January jobs report may also reflect the effects of severe winter weather, which has historically influenced employment figures. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, noted that while the weather has depressed economic activity, its impact on the upcoming report is expected to be minimal, as the adverse conditions occurred late in the month.

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White House officials have actively sought to mitigate the potential fallout from the upcoming jobs report. Navarro stated, “We have to revise our expectations down significantly for what a monthly job number should look like,” emphasizing the need for Wall Street to adjust its outlook. Hassett added that the combination of strong GDP growth and a declining labor force should not cause panic if job numbers fall short of expectations.

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While the consensus among economists suggests a modest job gain, forecasts vary significantly. Oxford Economics predicts only 30,000 jobs added, well below the broader consensus. This discrepancy highlights the uncertainty surrounding the labor market's current state and the potential implications for the administration's economic narrative.

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• “We have to revise our expectations down significantly for what a monthly job number should look like,” — Peter Navarro, Senior Trade Adviser

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• “I think that you should expect slightly smaller job numbers that are consistent with high GDP growth right now,” — Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council

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• “The idea that slower hiring is simply a function of long-term demographics is both unsatisfactory and an attempt to distract from immigration and trade policies — see the 72,000 decline in manufacturing jobs last year that will likely look worse following the upcoming benchmark revision,” — Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist at RSM US

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