China's Carbon Emissions Show Signs of Stabilization in 2025

In 2025, China's carbon dioxide emissions were reported to be "flat or falling," marking a significant moment for the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases. According to an analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) for Carbon Brief, emissions likely declined by approximately 0.3% for the year, with notable reductions across various sectors, including power generation and transportation. This trend is particularly noteworthy as it is the first time emissions have stabilized or decreased during a period of rising energy demand, a shift attributed to China's rapid expansion of renewable energy sources.

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The decline in emissions can be linked to several factors. Power consumption in China rose by 520 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2025, yet the increase in clean energy generation—solar output increased by 43%, wind by 14%, and nuclear by 8%—more than compensated for this demand. Consequently, coal-fired power generation fell by nearly 2%, contributing to a 1.5% decrease in overall power-sector emissions. Additionally, emissions from transport and construction materials, such as cement, also saw significant reductions of 3% and 7%, respectively.

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However, the progress remains fragile. The chemical industry, which accounts for about 13% of China's total emissions, experienced a 12% increase in emissions in 2025, primarily due to rising coal and oil use. This sector's growth poses a risk to the overall downward trend in emissions, as a modest rebound in emissions could potentially exceed previous peak levels.

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Lauri Myllyvirta, the lead analyst at CREA, emphasized the importance of the current stabilization, stating, “Whether emissions increase or decrease by a fraction of a percent year-on-year change only has symbolic significance.” He noted that while emissions are not rising rapidly as they did until 2023, they are also not decreasing at a rate necessary for China to make substantial progress toward its carbon neutrality goals. Myllyvirta highlighted the need for further scaling up renewable energy and implementing grid reforms to facilitate this transition.

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Despite the positive indicators, some analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of this trend. Concerns have been raised regarding the Chinese government's commitment to reducing emissions, particularly as it has set a target to peak coal consumption around 2027. Critics argue that without decisive action to limit coal power capacity and enhance the flexibility of energy grids, the current plateau may not lead to a lasting decline in emissions.

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The future trajectory of China's emissions will largely depend on the decisions made in the upcoming five-year plan, expected to be unveiled in March. Analysts suggest that removing barriers to clean energy growth and enhancing energy storage capabilities will be crucial for maintaining the downward trend in emissions.

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• “I think it's clear that emissions have plateaued, but there is a question mark about the next couple of years since the government is officially only targeting a peak in coal consumption around 2027, and in general even a plateau means there could be year-to-year ups and downs due to seasonal factors,” — Lauri Myllyvirta, Lead Analyst, CREA

The Independent

• “One positive thing is that the year-end surge in clean energy additions will continue to drive up clean power supply this year, so there is a good chance that there is no rebound in emissions before the 2027 coal peak.” — Lauri Myllyvirta, Lead Analyst, CREA

The Independent