Full Breakdown
Economic Outlook for 2026: Insights from Tim Mehedy
2/12/2026, 3:36:21 PM
Reflections on a Chaotic 2025
Tim Mehedy, co-founder and chief economist at Access/Macro, characterized the year 2025 as "messy" during a recent event in Salt Lake City hosted by the Bank of Utah. Despite initial concerns about a potential recession, Mehedy noted a shift in sentiment as the year progressed. He indicated that there is "a sizeable amount of momentum heading into the first quarter (of 2026)," a stark contrast to the worries that loomed at the start and middle of 2025.
Public Sentiment on Economic Concerns
A Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll conducted in January among 799 registered Utah voters revealed that approximately 85% of respondents expressed concern about the national economy. Inflation emerged as the primary worry, cited by 47% of those concerned, followed by housing costs at 29%. Other concerns included retirement savings (11%) and job loss (4%). Despite these inflationary pressures, Mehedy observed that consumer spending remains robust, with individuals continuing to spend at or above normal levels.
The Impact of Midterm Elections on Economic Sentiment
As 2026 approaches, it coincides with a midterm election year, raising questions about the potential impact on the economy. Mehedy suggested that while elections typically do not significantly affect the economy, they can influence financial markets. He warned of possible "fireworks" during the election season, which could create uncertainty among consumers and businesses. Mehedy stated, "If we get some craziness and legal fights and all this stuff on the election, I can see businesses and people say, 'I'm holding off until we get some clarity.'"
Official Statements & Responses
Mehedy emphasized that consumer sentiment is currently marked by a mix of dissatisfaction and spending. He noted that while people are "grumbling and kicking and being upset about the state of the economy," this has not yet translated into a significant reduction in spending. However, he cautioned that if fears and uncertainties escalate, it could lead to a pullback in consumer spending and business investments.
Verbatim Quotes
- “There's a sizeable amount of momentum heading into the first quarter (of 2026),” — Tim Mehedy, Chief Economist at Access/Macro
- “If we get some craziness and legal fights and all this stuff on the election, I can see businesses and people say, 'I'm holding off until we get some clarity.” — Tim Mehedy, Chief Economist at Access/Macro
Conclusion
As the economic landscape transitions from 2025 to 2026, the interplay between consumer sentiment, inflation, and the upcoming midterm elections will be critical in shaping the economic outlook. Tim Mehedy's insights underscore the complexities of the current economic environment and the potential for significant shifts in consumer behavior as uncertainties unfold.
