Xi Jinping's Military Purges: A Strategy of Control and Instability

In early 2023, Chinese President Xi Jinping initiated a significant purge within the People's Liberation Army (PLA), resulting in the removal of high-ranking officials, including Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli. This marked one of the most extensive military purges since the death of Mao Zedong in 1976, reducing the Central Military Commission (CMC) from seven members to just Xi and one vice chairman, Zhang Shengmin. The purges are seen as part of Xi's broader anti-corruption campaign, aimed at consolidating power and ensuring loyalty within the military.

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Xi's anti-corruption drive began with a focus on civilian sectors before extending to the military, particularly after a pivotal meeting in 2014 at the Gutian Conference, which echoed Mao's efforts to assert control over the military. The campaign aimed to dismantle corrupt networks within the PLA, where promotions were often bought, and to replace them with loyalists aligned with Xi's vision for a modernized and competent military.

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The removal of Zhang Youxia, a prominent figure with combat experience, raises concerns about the PLA's leadership and operational capabilities. Analysts suggest that while the PLA remains well-funded and capable, the purges create an environment of fear and uncertainty, potentially undermining decision-making and operational readiness. The political motivations behind these purges may compromise the military's effectiveness, as loyalty to Xi becomes paramount over professional competence.

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Critics argue that Xi's purges reflect deep-seated paranoia and insecurity within the CCP, suggesting that the removal of experienced leaders like Zhang indicates a troubling trend of consolidating power at the expense of institutional stability. Some analysts express concern that the PLA's command structure, now heavily politicized, may lead to miscalculations in crisis situations, particularly regarding Taiwan.

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In a rare public address, Xi emphasized the need for the military to strengthen its political education and combat readiness, framing the purges as necessary for addressing corruption and enhancing military capability. However, the messaging from the PLA Daily shifted from strong condemnation of the purged generals to vague references to corruption, indicating potential unease within the ranks about the leadership's direction.

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While some analysts assert that the purges are a sign of Xi's tightening grip on power, others caution against overstating their impact on the PLA's operational capabilities. The lack of consensus among military leaders regarding the purged officials' actions suggests underlying tensions that could affect the PLA's cohesion and effectiveness.

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As Xi continues to consolidate power, the PLA faces a critical juncture. The ongoing purges may lead to further instability within the military, raising questions about its future effectiveness and the potential for dissent among lower-ranking officers. The balance between maintaining loyalty to Xi and ensuring operational readiness remains precarious, with implications for China's military posture, particularly regarding Taiwan.

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• “The past year has been unusual and extraordinary,” — Xi Jinping, President of China

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• “Loyalty to Xi now ensures survival and promotion with the officer corps of the PLA.” — Analyst Commentary

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• “He added that when systems like the CCP start to wobble, history suggests that real change is often driven by outsiders—or by former insiders willing to break the rules.” — Heng He, China Affairs Analyst

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• “Finally, it is clear that Xi has taken Mao’s maxim to heart: Power flows from the barrel of a gun.” — Mao Zedong (paraphrased in context)

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