Full Breakdown
Texas Gubernatorial Race Tightens as Gina Hinojosa Challenges Greg Abbott
2/13/2026, 5:20:07 AM
Current Polling Landscape
Texas Governor Greg Abbott is facing a surprisingly competitive reelection campaign against Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa. An internal poll conducted by GBAO Strategies from January 26 to February 3, 2026, indicates Abbott leading with 46% compared to Hinojosa's 43%, with Libertarian candidate Pat Dixon at 6%. This poll suggests a narrowing gap, particularly among independent voters, where Hinojosa leads Abbott by 16 points, 47% to 31%. The survey included 1,000 likely voters and has a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points.
In contrast, a University of Houston poll conducted between January 20 and January 31, 2026, shows Abbott with a more comfortable lead of 49% to Hinojosa's 42%, with 3% for Dixon and 6% undecided. This poll, which surveyed 1,502 likely voters, has a margin of error of ±2.53%. Abbott's favorability rating stands at 51%, while Hinojosa's is at 35%, with 45% of respondents indicating they do not know enough about her to form an opinion.
Background and Context
Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since the early 1990s, making Hinojosa's challenge significant. Abbott, a three-term incumbent and ally of former President Donald Trump, has maintained a strong Republican presence in Texas, where the GOP has held every statewide office for over three decades. His campaign has focused on maintaining this Republican stronghold, particularly in light of recent Democratic gains in voter enthusiasm and fundraising.
Key Figures in the Race
- Greg Abbott: The incumbent governor, first elected in 2014, is seeking to extend his tenure and become Texas's longest-serving governor. His campaign emphasizes traditional Republican values and a strong stance against perceived progressive threats.
- Gina Hinojosa: A Texas state representative since 2017, Hinojosa represents a new generation of Democrats aiming to disrupt the Republican dominance in Texas. She has garnered support among women, Black voters, and younger demographics.
- Pat Dixon: The Libertarian candidate, while trailing in polls, emphasizes the need for competition in the race.
Criticism and Opposition
Hinojosa has criticized Abbott's governance, referring to it as the "Greg Abbott Corruption Tax," citing rising energy costs and school closures as key issues. She argues that Texans are ready for change, reflecting a growing discontent with the current administration. Conversely, Abbott's campaign has framed Hinojosa and the Democrats as a threat to Texas values, asserting that they cannot "buy" the state.
Official Statements
In response to the University of Houston poll, Hinojosa stated, "We're within single digits and closing fast," emphasizing the momentum of her campaign. Abbott, in a November speech, asserted, "We will defend our culture. We will safeguard our Texas values from the radicals who are trying to shove Texas to the far progressive left."
What's Next
The Texas primaries are scheduled for March 3, 2026, with the general election set for November 3, 2026. If Abbott wins, he will solidify his position as Texas's longest-serving governor. The upcoming primaries will be crucial in determining the final candidates for the general election, with both parties gearing up for a potentially historic contest.
