U.S. Engagement in the South Caucasus: Mixed Signals from Vice President JD Vance

Vice President JD Vance's recent visit to the South Caucasus aimed to signify renewed American engagement in a region marked by historical conflicts and humanitarian crises. On February 10, Vance visited the Armenian Genocide Memorial in Tsitsernakaberd, Yerevan, where he expressed his intention to honor the victims of the Armenian genocide. This statement was significant as it marked a departure from decades of U.S. administrations avoiding the term "genocide" to maintain relations with Turkey, a NATO ally. However, shortly after posting this message on X, it was deleted, with the White House attributing the action to a staff error. This incident raised concerns about the Biden administration's commitment to its previous recognition of the genocide and suggested a retreat under political pressure.

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Following his visit to the memorial, Vance traveled to Azerbaijan to meet with President Ilham Aliyev. This sequence of events was particularly poignant given the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh, where Azerbaijan's recent actions have led to the destruction of Armenian communities. The visit could have served as an opportunity for Vance to address Azerbaijan's aggressive policies, particularly the blockade of the Lachin Corridor, which has severely restricted access to food, medicine, and fuel for the region's Armenian population. Instead, the meeting culminated in a strategic partnership agreement that many critics interpreted as an exercise in appeasement.

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Since December 2022, Azerbaijan has imposed a blockade on the Lachin Corridor, the sole route connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. This blockade has resulted in dire humanitarian conditions, with reports of empty supermarket shelves and struggling hospitals. Legal experts have warned that the blockade's conditions may amount to ethnic cleansing. Despite these warnings, the international response, particularly from major powers like the United States, has been limited to diplomatic appeals without any significant pressure to lift the blockade.

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Critics argue that the mixed signals from the U.S. government undermine the potential for lasting peace in the region. The lack of a strong response to Azerbaijan's actions has emboldened the country, demonstrating that it can act without facing meaningful consequences. This perception of impunity may lead to further aggression, as the current U.S. messaging suggests that even significant acknowledgments, such as genocide recognition, can be retracted with a single deleted post.

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The Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) has expressed concern over the implications of Vance's visit and the U.S. government's inconsistent messaging. They argue that to foster a durable peace in the Caucasus, the United States must adopt a clear and consistent stance rather than one that invites further atrocities.

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• “If the United States wants a durable peace in the Caucasus, it cannot speak in two voices.” — Gev Iskajyan, Advocacy Director, ANCA

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The situation in the South Caucasus remains precarious, and the effectiveness of U.S. diplomatic efforts will depend on its ability to convey a unified and principled stance in the face of ongoing humanitarian crises.

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