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January CPI Expected at 2.5%, Fed Rate Cut Possible

2/13/2026

50 3 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

The CPI for January 2026 will be released on February 13, and economists expect a 2.5% year-over-year rate, down from 2.7% in December.
If confirmed, 2.5% would be the lowest inflation rate since May 2025.
Economists say a softer CPI could allow the Federal Reserve to cut rates.
Tariffs and rising oil prices may influence future inflation, affecting the outlook and market moves.

History

Historical Context

In May 1975, the U.S. grappled with a 9.1% inflation rate, prompting the Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Arthur Burns, to raise interest rates. Inflation peaked at 13.5% in 1980, highlighting the challenges of economic management. By January 2026, a projected 2.5% inflation rate suggests significant improvement, reflecting ongoing efforts to stabilize the economy amid fluctuating external factors like oil prices.

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Story summary

The CPI for January 2026 will be released on February 13, and economists expect a 2.5% year-over-year rate, down from 2.7% in December.
If confirmed, 2.5% would be the lowest inflation rate since May 2025.
Economists say a softer CPI could allow the Federal Reserve to cut rates.
Tariffs and rising oil prices may influence future inflation, affecting the outlook and market moves.

1 / 2