Growing Public Concern Over Global Conflict and Military Spending in the West

Recent findings from The POLITICO Poll indicate a significant increase in public anxiety regarding the potential for a new global war among Western nations. Conducted from February 6 to February 9, 2025, the survey involved over 10,000 respondents across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. The results reveal that a majority of participants believe the world is becoming more dangerous, with many predicting a likelihood of World War III within the next five years. Notably, 46 percent of Americans and 43 percent of Britons foresee a new world war as "likely" or "very likely" by 2031, a marked increase from previous polling.

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Despite the rising fears of conflict, the poll also highlights a reluctance among the public to support increased military spending. While there is broad agreement on the need for higher defense budgets in the U.K., France, Germany, and Canada, this support diminishes significantly when respondents are asked to consider the financial implications, such as government debt, service cuts, or tax increases. For instance, support for increased defense spending in France dropped from 40 percent to 28 percent when trade-offs were introduced, and in Germany, it fell from 37 percent to 24 percent.

Politico EuropeWestern nations anticipate the onset of World War III.

The perception of military threats varies across the surveyed countries. While U.S. respondents are the most inclined to believe their nation will engage in military action within five years, Germans are the least likely to expect a third global war. Additionally, a significant portion of respondents in France, Germany, the U.K., and Canada express concerns about the potential use of nuclear weapons in future conflicts. Interestingly, the U.S. is viewed as a greater threat than China by many in France, Germany, and the U.K.

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The poll also reveals skepticism regarding proposals for an EU standing army under a unified command, with only 22 percent of Germans and 17 percent of French respondents supporting the idea. This skepticism reflects broader concerns about the feasibility of increased military spending amid tight public finances. As Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First, noted, “Our polling indicates that the heightened concerns about war do not automatically justify heavy defense spending.”

Western nations anticipate the onset of World War III.

The findings underscore the challenges facing NATO leaders as they navigate a landscape marked by heightened fears of conflict and limited public willingness to finance military enhancements. With ongoing geopolitical tensions, including Russia's war against Ukraine and U.S. military actions in various regions, European leaders find themselves in a precarious position, needing to bolster security while managing public expectations and financial realities. The survey results indicate a critical need for strategic discussions on defense spending and international cooperation in addressing security challenges.

Western nations anticipate the onset of World War III.

• “Our polling indicates that the heightened concerns about war do not automatically justify heavy defense spending.” — Seb Wride, Head of Polling at Public First.

Western nations anticipate the onset of World War III.