Full Breakdown
Ken Paxton Leads in Texas Senate Republican Primary Polls
2/14/2026, 1:31:21 AM
Overview of the Primary Race
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is positioned to lead in the upcoming Republican primary for the U.S. Senate, facing incumbent Senator John Cornyn. A recent poll commissioned by Paxton's campaign indicates that he has garnered support from 36% of likely GOP primary voters, while Cornyn trails with 27%. Representative Wesley Hunt is in third place with 15% support, and 22% of voters remain undecided. Early voting begins on March 3, with a potential runoff scheduled for May 26 if no candidate secures over 50% of the vote.
Polling Data and Trends
Multiple polls corroborate Paxton's lead. An independent survey from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs shows Paxton ahead of Cornyn by a margin of 38% to 31%, with Hunt at 17%. The RealClearPolitics polling aggregator also reflects Paxton's advantage, reporting him at 29.8% and Cornyn at 27.8%. A JL Partners poll further indicates Hunt's support at 25.7%, suggesting a competitive landscape among the candidates.
Campaign Strategies and Messaging
Both Paxton and Hunt have positioned themselves as challengers to Cornyn, labeling him a "Washington insider." Paxton's campaign has utilized digital media, including an AI-generated advertisement that portrays Cornyn in a negative light. Despite facing significant financial opposition—over $70 million spent against him—Paxton's campaign asserts that he remains resilient and intends to communicate his narrative to Texas voters through paid media starting soon.
Criticism and Controversies
Paxton's campaign is not without its challenges. He has faced negative press stemming from his impeachment by the Texas House in May 2023, where he was acquitted by the state Senate on multiple articles related to his involvement in a lawsuit benefiting a political donor. Additionally, his personal life has come under scrutiny, with his wife, state Senator Angela Paxton, filing for divorce in July 2023.
Official Statements
Nick Maddux, a senior adviser to Paxton, emphasized the Attorney General's strong position despite the financial disadvantages, stating, “the people of Texas know Ken Paxton, and they know John Cornyn.” He also mentioned that Paxton's campaign would begin to share his story more broadly through media efforts.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
While Paxton leads in several polls, the varying support levels for Cornyn and Hunt across different surveys highlight a competitive primary. The discrepancies in polling data raise questions about voter sentiment and the potential for shifts as the primary date approaches.
What's Next
As the primary date nears, candidates will intensify their campaigning efforts, with early voting set to commence shortly. The outcome of this primary could significantly impact the Republican landscape in Texas and the broader national political scene.
