Full Breakdown
2026 NFL MVP Race: Analyzing Potential Longshots
2/14/2026, 2:24:11 AM
Overview of the 2025 MVP Outcome
The 2025 NFL MVP race concluded with Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford narrowly defeating New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye by a single first-place vote. Heading into Week 18, Maye was the favorite, with odds around -400, but Stafford's performance in the regular-season finale, where he threw for 281 yards and three touchdowns, ultimately swayed voters. Notably, Stafford's earlier performance in a high-scoring overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks also contributed to his MVP recognition, despite both players being considered longshots at the season's start.
Current Landscape for 2026 MVP Candidates
As the 2026 NFL season approaches, the conversation shifts to potential MVP candidates, particularly those who could emerge as longshots. Notably, Kirk Cousins, pending free agency, is highlighted as a potential dark horse. If he returns to the Minnesota Vikings and secures the starting position, his performance alongside star receiver Justin Jefferson could make him a compelling candidate. The narrative of a comeback or redemption story is crucial for longshot candidates to gain traction among voters.
Key Contenders and Their Odds
The current DraftKings odds for the 2026 NFL MVP feature several notable quarterbacks:
- Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes (+1000): Both quarterbacks are seen as strong contenders. Mahomes, a two-time MVP winner, is recovering from a torn ACL but could regain his form quickly. Burrow's late-season return from injury showcased his potential, and if the Cincinnati Bengals return to playoff contention, he could be a frontrunner.
- Trevor Lawrence (+2000): After a breakout season in 2025, where he threw for over 4,000 yards and 29 touchdowns, Lawrence is positioned well for MVP consideration. His performance during a late-season winning streak has garnered attention, and maintaining this level of play could solidify his candidacy.
- Jaxson Dart (+4500): The second-year quarterback is suggested as a potential longshot by NFL analyst R.J. White. Under new head coach John Harbaugh, Dart could thrive and produce impressive numbers, particularly as the New York Giants aim for improvement in a competitive NFC East.
Criticism of Non-Quarterback Candidates
Historically, the MVP award has favored quarterbacks, with only 16 running backs having won since the award's inception. The last non-quarterback to receive the MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012. Despite record-breaking performances from players like Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley, neither received MVP votes in recent years, indicating a trend that limits non-quarterbacks' chances for the award.
Conclusion: The Road Ahead
As the 2026 NFL season unfolds, the MVP race is expected to be competitive, with both established stars and potential longshots vying for recognition. The narratives surrounding these players, particularly those involving comebacks or significant improvements, will play a crucial role in shaping voter perceptions and ultimately determining the MVP winner.
