Dismantling the National Center for Atmospheric Research: Implications and Concerns

The National Science Foundation (NSF) announced that the management of the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center, currently operated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), will transition to an unnamed third-party operator. This decision is part of a broader initiative by the Trump administration to dismantle NCAR, a leading institution in climate and weather research, which has raised significant concerns among the scientific community regarding the future of weather forecasting and climate modeling in the United States.

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NCAR, located in Boulder, Colorado, has been integral to atmospheric research since its establishment. It supports over 1,500 researchers from more than 500 universities, providing essential resources for accurate weather forecasts and climate models. The center's work is critical for predicting extreme weather events, which directly impacts public safety and economic stability.

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Everette Joseph, NCAR's director, expressed concerns about losing control over the supercomputing facility, noting the uncertainty surrounding the new managing entity. Former NCAR director James Hurrell, along with other scientists, has voiced strong opposition to the fragmentation of NCAR, arguing that it undermines national interests in weather research. Colorado Governor Jared Polis has also been implicated in the political dynamics surrounding this decision, as some view the move as a tactic to pressure him regarding clemency for Tina Peters, a convicted election official.

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The scientific community has rallied against the dismantling of NCAR, emphasizing that breaking up the institution could jeopardize NOAA's weather modeling capabilities, which have already been lagging behind international standards. Ramalingam Saravanan, a professor at Texas A&M University, highlighted the potential loss of synergy among NCAR's various research components, which are essential for effective climate modeling.

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The dismantling of NCAR poses risks not only to scientific research but also to public safety and national security. NCAR's research has been pivotal in improving aviation safety, enhancing agricultural resilience, and providing critical weather intelligence for military operations. Fragmenting NCAR could disrupt decades of collaborative efforts that have led to significant advancements in these areas.

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In response to the NSF's restructuring plans, Joseph stated, “We do not yet know who the new managing entity will be nor do we know the timeline for this transition.” Hurrell's letter to NSF emphasized that any fragmentation of NCAR is “fundamentally not in the nation’s interest,” underscoring the potential negative consequences for weather forecasting and climate research.

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While the NSF has indicated support for NCAR's weather-related programs, it has not committed to continuing its climate research. This lack of clarity raises questions about the future of NCAR's integrated research model and its ability to serve the public effectively.

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• “If you are able to use the computers just as before, we can do business as usual,” — Ramalingam Saravanan, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University

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• “Any path that leads to the fragmentation or dismantling of NSF NCAR is fundamentally not in the nation’s interest.” — James Hurrell, Former NCAR Director

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The NSF is currently soliciting feedback on its restructuring plans, with a deadline for public comments set for March 13, 2026. Stakeholders are encouraged to communicate the importance of preserving NCAR as a unified entity to their congressional representatives, as funding decisions will be revisited by Congress in October 2026.

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