Story perspectives

Federal Court Boosts Prediction Markets Amid Trump’s Return

2/14/2026

Summary

Story summary

The prediction markets industry began in 1988 at the University of Iowa with the Iowa Electronic Markets, forecasting election results.
A U.S. federal court ruling in 2024 favored the industry, easing regulatory challenges that had limited growth.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to office coincides with expansion by Kalshi and Polymarket.
Experts warn of market manipulation and call for regulatory oversight to preserve integrity as these markets grow.

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Story summary

The prediction markets industry began in 1988 at the University of Iowa with the Iowa Electronic Markets, forecasting election results.
A U.S. federal court ruling in 2024 favored the industry, easing regulatory challenges that had limited growth.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to office coincides with expansion by Kalshi and Polymarket.
Experts warn of market manipulation and call for regulatory oversight to preserve integrity as these markets grow.