Back to today’s briefing

Story perspectives

AI Surge Could Trigger $120 Billion in Defaults

2/14/2026

22 4 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

UBS analyst Matthew Mish warns AI's rise could disrupt credit markets and trigger tens of billions in corporate loan defaults over the coming year, especially PE-backed software and data services.
Mish says sentiment shifted from AI as a boon to a winner-take-all dynamic.
UBS projects $75–$120 billion in defaults by year-end, driven by default rates in leveraged loans and private credit markets valued at $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion.

1 of 1

Story summary

UBS analyst Matthew Mish warns AI's rise could disrupt credit markets and trigger tens of billions in corporate loan defaults over the coming year, especially PE-backed software and data services.
Mish says sentiment shifted from AI as a boon to a winner-take-all dynamic.
UBS projects $75–$120 billion in defaults by year-end, driven by default rates in leveraged loans and private credit markets valued at $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion.