Early Polling Reveals Democratic Contenders for 2028 Presidential Race

A recent poll conducted by Focaldata has identified key Democratic contenders for the 2028 presidential primary race. The survey, which included 1,148 voters on February 10, 2026, indicates that former Vice President Kamala Harris is the frontrunner, receiving 39% support. California Governor Gavin Newsom follows with 21%, while New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez garners 10%. Other notable figures include former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, each with 7%, and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly at 6%. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker received 4% and 3%, respectively, while Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff each received 1%.

Newsweek

The polling comes at a time when several potential candidates are attending the Munich Security Conference, providing them with a platform to articulate their visions for U.S. foreign policy—an important aspect of the presidential role. Harris's lead in the polls aligns with findings from a Harvard/Harris poll, which similarly shows her at 39%, with Newsom at 30% and Ocasio-Cortez at 12%. The betting odds market on Kalshi gives Newsom a 32% chance of securing the nomination, while Ocasio-Cortez is at 9%, and Harris, Ossoff, and Shapiro each have a 7% chance.

Newsweek

At the Munich Security Conference, Ocasio-Cortez delivered a populist message, emphasizing the influence of corporations on democracy. She stated, “In democracies, we have elected leaders, and in massive corporations that then begin to consume the public sector... we’re starting to see this with some of the billionaire class throwing their weight around.” Newsom criticized former President Donald Trump's climate policies, asserting, “Donald Trump is temporary. He’ll be gone in three years... California is a stable and reliable partner in this space.”

Newsweek

Political analyst Robert Y. Shapiro highlighted that the perceived state of the economy and dissatisfaction with Trump's administration are likely to shape voter sentiment in the upcoming primary. He noted that disruptions caused by government actions, particularly concerning immigration enforcement, and controversies surrounding the Epstein scandal have negatively impacted Republican standing among voters.

Newsweek

While candidates typically do not announce their campaigns until after the midterms, discussions about potential runs are already underway. Newsom has indicated a willingness to consider a presidential run, stating, "I'm not thinking about running, but it's a path that I could see unfold." As the political landscape evolves, the primary campaigns are expected to gain momentum in 2027.

Newsweek

• “In democracies, we have elected leaders, and in massive corporations that then begin to consume the public sector, gobble up this spending, they start to call the shots and we’re starting to see this with some of the billionaire class throwing their weight around in domestic politics and in global politics as well,” — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, U.S. Representative

Newsweek

• “California is a stable and reliable partner in this space.” — Gavin Newsom, Governor of California

Newsweek

This early polling data provides a glimpse into the Democratic primary landscape as potential candidates begin to position themselves for the 2028 election.

Newsweek