OPEC+ Considers Resuming Oil Output Increases in April

OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil output increases starting in April 2026, according to multiple sources within the organization. This potential decision comes as the group prepares for peak summer demand and seeks to regain market share amid ongoing tensions related to U.S.-Iran relations. The upcoming meeting on March 1 will involve eight key OPEC+ members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman. These nations previously raised production quotas by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) from April to December 2025, but opted to freeze further increases for January through March 2026 due to seasonal demand fluctuations.

ReutersBloomberg

Despite concerns of a supply glut, Brent crude prices have remained relatively stable, trading near $68 a barrel, close to a six-month high of $71.89 reached in January. The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently adjusted its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 850,000 bpd, which is still an increase from last year's growth of 770,000 bpd. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak indicated that demand is expected to rise gradually starting in March or April, which could influence OPEC+'s decision-making process.

ReutersBloomberg

While some OPEC+ members express optimism about resuming output increases, others remain cautious. Reports indicate that only six out of 18 traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg anticipated a production hike in April, with the majority expecting a continuation of the pause. The differing viewpoints among OPEC+ members have been evident, particularly between the more aggressive stance of Saudi Arabia and the UAE compared to Russia's more cautious approach. This divergence may impact the final decision at the upcoming meeting.

Bloomberg

OPEC+ has not yet committed to a definitive course of action regarding production increases. The organization has acknowledged the complexities of the current market, which is influenced by geopolitical tensions and sanctions affecting member nations like Iran and Russia. As discussions continue leading up to the March 1 meeting, the final decision will likely reflect a balance between market demand forecasts and internal member dynamics.

Bloomberg

There are conflicting opinions regarding the necessity and timing of production increases. While some sources suggest a strong inclination towards resuming output hikes, others highlight a significant number of analysts who predict a continued pause. Additionally, the impact of U.S. foreign policy, particularly concerning Iran, remains an uncertain factor that could sway OPEC+'s decision.

Bloomberg

• “Starting from around March and April, demand is gradually increasing. This will be an additional factor to ensure the balance,” — Alexander Novak, Russian Deputy Prime Minister

Reuters

• “Some OPEC+ members see scope for the alliance to resume supply increases in April, believing concerns of a glut in global oil markets to be overblown.” — Anonymous OPEC+ Delegate

Bloomberg

As OPEC+ prepares for its March meeting, the interplay of market conditions, geopolitical tensions, and internal member dynamics will be crucial in determining the future of oil production levels.

Bloomberg