Story perspectives

California Governor's Race: 12% Chance of GOP-Only Showdown

2/15/2026

Summary

Story summary

California's 2026 governor's race could produce a Republican-only general election after a Democratic field under the top-two primary system.
Political analyst Paul Mitchell's simulations show a 12% chance of a Republican-only runoff.
The race features Democrats Katie Porter (D-Calif.) and Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.).
Republicans Chad Bianco (R-Calif.), Riverside County Sheriff, and Steve Hilton (R-Calif.) lead their party.
The primary is set for June 2, 2026, with implications for down-ballot races.

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Story summary

California's 2026 governor's race could produce a Republican-only general election after a Democratic field under the top-two primary system.
Political analyst Paul Mitchell's simulations show a 12% chance of a Republican-only runoff.
The race features Democrats Katie Porter (D-Calif.) and Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.).
Republicans Chad Bianco (R-Calif.), Riverside County Sheriff, and Steve Hilton (R-Calif.) lead their party.
The primary is set for June 2, 2026, with implications for down-ballot races.