US-Japan Relations Amid Rising Tensions with China

On February 14, 2026, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi convened at the Munich Security Conference to reaffirm their commitment to deepening bilateral relations. This meeting comes as Japan faces increasing diplomatic and economic pressure from China, particularly following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's suggestion that Japan might assist Taiwan in the event of a conflict with China. In response, China has implemented export controls on dual-use items to Japan, citing concerns over Japan's military capabilities.

The Straits TimesBloombergThe revival of Japanese militarism: A crisis or an opportunity for China?

Takaichi's recent electoral success, where she secured a supermajority, has emboldened her administration to pursue a more assertive security policy. This shift is viewed as a revival of militarism in Japan, a move that has drawn sharp criticism from Beijing. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi condemned Takaichi's stance, warning against a return to militarism and invoking Japan's historical aggression during World War II. He characterized her support for Taiwan as a dangerous provocation that challenges China's territorial sovereignty.

Bloomberg

The historical context of Japan's militarism and its colonial past in Taiwan continues to fuel tensions. Wang Yi emphasized that Japan's actions could lead to a repeat of history if not addressed. He stated, “If Japan doesn’t repent on its wrongdoing, history will only repeat itself,” highlighting the deep-seated resentment in China regarding Japan's wartime actions. This sentiment complicates Japan's attempts to strengthen its military ties with the US and assert its role in regional security.

Bloomberg

Critics of Japan's militaristic revival argue that it could destabilize the region further. Some analysts suggest that while Takaichi's approach may consolidate domestic support, it risks provoking a stronger response from China. The Chinese government has historically reacted to perceived threats with military posturing, and the current climate suggests that Japan's rightward shift could escalate tensions rather than foster dialogue.

The revival of Japanese militarism: A crisis or an opportunity for China?

In response to the escalating situation, Rubio emphasized the importance of dialogue among great powers, stating, “It would be irresponsible for great powers not to have relationships and talk through things.” Meanwhile, Takaichi's administration remains committed to enhancing Japan's security policy, with Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi advocating for transparency in communicating these changes to the public.

The Straits Times

• “If you go back down the old road, it will be a dead end. If you try gambling again, the loss will be faster and more devastating.” — Wang Yi, Chinese Foreign Minister

Bloomberg

• “Even though we have differences, we have disagreements, Japan’s stance is very clear – we are always open to dialogue,” — Shinjiro Koizumi, Japanese Defense Minister

The Straits Times

• “If Japan doesn’t repent on its wrongdoing, history will only repeat itself,” — Wang Yi, Chinese Foreign Minister

Bloomberg

Takaichi is scheduled to visit Washington in March to meet with President Donald Trump, ahead of his planned trip to China. This meeting is expected to further solidify US-Japan ties amid the ongoing tensions with China, as both nations navigate the complexities of regional security dynamics.

The Straits TimesBloombergThe revival of Japanese militarism: A crisis or an opportunity for China?