Shifts in Syrian and Lebanese Public Opinion Toward Israel

Recent polling indicates a notable shift in public opinion in Syria and Lebanon regarding relations with Israel. In Syria, 59% of respondents believe that peace with Israel is likely, while 47% support normalization contingent upon a resolution to the Palestinian issue. This change comes under the new leadership of President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, who has received a favorable performance rating from 69% of Syrians. In Lebanon, support for disarming Hezbollah is strong, with 63% of respondents in favor.

Ahmed Al-Sharaa assumed the presidency of Syria following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. Al-Sharaa's administration has garnered support from the Trump administration, despite his controversial past as a former member of al-Qaeda. The U.S. continues to engage militarily in the region, focusing on eliminating ISIS, which remains a significant threat.

• Ahmed Al-Sharaa: Current President of Syria, viewed positively by a majority of the population.

• Bashar al-Assad: Former President of Syria, known for his alliances with Hezbollah and Iran.

• Hezbollah: A Lebanese militant group facing declining public support in both Syria and Lebanon.

• Council for Secure America: A pro-energy organization advocating for strong U.S.-Israel relations and monitoring public sentiment in the region.

A recent poll conducted among 252 Lebanese adults revealed that only 11% have a positive view of Hezbollah, while 63% support disarming the group. In Syria, 59% of respondents believe peace with Israel is possible, and 47% support normalization after a Palestinian resolution. The margin of error for both polls is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Jennifer Suton, executive director of the Council for Secure America, stated, “These trends provide an opportunity for the U.S. to reinforce traditional geopolitical partners, weaken proxy forces, promote peace and stability, and discourage external entities from destabilizing the region.” She expressed cautious optimism about the evolving dynamics in the Middle East.

Despite the positive shifts in public opinion, skepticism remains regarding the feasibility of normalization with Israel. Many Lebanese respondents show limited support for such initiatives, indicating that while attitudes are changing, significant barriers still exist.

While the polling data indicates a shift in sentiment, the extent to which these views will translate into political action or policy changes remains uncertain. There is also a discrepancy in the level of support for normalization between Syria and Lebanon, with Lebanese respondents showing much lower enthusiasm compared to their Syrian counterparts.

• “These trends provide an opportunity for the U.S. to reinforce traditional geopolitical partners, weaken proxy forces, promote peace and stability, and discourage external entities from destabilizing the region. We remain cautiously hopeful, but ever-clear-eyed, as historic developments in the Middle East unfold,” — Jennifer Suton, Executive Director, Council for Secure America

• “While Israeli normalization is not yet on the horizon, we are seeing significant shifts in Syria, with a majority believing that eventual peace with Israel is possible,” said Jennifer Suton, executive director of Council for a Secure America.” — Jennifer Suton, Executive Director, Council for Secure America

This evolving landscape in Syrian and Lebanese public opinion reflects broader geopolitical shifts and presents both opportunities and challenges for U.S. foreign policy in the region.