China Accelerates Nuclear Submarine Production, Challenging U.S. Naval Dominance

China has significantly increased its production of nuclear-powered submarines, surpassing the United States in both the number of submarines launched and total tonnage from 2021 to 2025. According to a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), China launched 10 submarines totaling 79,000 tons compared to the U.S.'s 7 submarines at 55,500 tons during the same period. This marks a notable shift from the previous five years (2016-2020), when China added only three submarines (23,000 tons) against the U.S.'s seven (55,500 tons). As of early 2025, China operates 12 active nuclear-powered submarines, while the U.S. maintains a fleet of 65.

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To support this growth, China has expanded the Huludao yard of Bohai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Co. in northern China. The IISS report indicates that the Chinese fleet now includes six ballistic-missile submarines (SSBNs) and six guided-missile submarines (SSGNs). The report also highlights the launch of two Type 094 SSBNs, which are capable of firing nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, contributing to China's nuclear triad alongside land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles and bombers. Furthermore, the anticipated Type-096 SSBN is expected to begin production within the decade.

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The growing number of Chinese submarines poses a challenge for the U.S. and its allies, as they struggle to increase their own submarine output. The IISS report notes that while Chinese submarine designs may lag behind U.S. and European counterparts in terms of quality and stealth, the sheer number of vessels could provide a strategic advantage in naval engagements. U.S. Navy Secretary John Phelan has expressed concerns regarding the state of U.S. naval construction, stating, “All of our programs are a mess,” highlighting delays and budget overruns.

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The Congressional Research Service (CRS) projects that U.S. attack submarine numbers could decline to 47 by 2030, as aging Los Angeles-class submarines are retired. An increase to 50 attack submarines is not expected until 2032, contingent on meeting construction goals. Additionally, plans to sell three to five Virginia-class submarines to Australia as part of the AUKUS deal may further complicate efforts to bolster the U.S. fleet in the near term. The CRS report warns that this "valley" in submarine numbers could lead to operational strain and weakened deterrence against adversaries like China.

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Critics of the U.S. submarine program have pointed out that the current trajectory of naval construction could undermine U.S. maritime dominance. The IISS report emphasizes that while the U.S. maintains a qualitative edge, the growing Chinese fleet could shift the balance of power in the Pacific.

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• “The greater numbers in the water present a growing challenge to (the US and other Western) countries as they struggle to increase their own output,” — International Institute for Strategic Studies

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• “All of our programs are a mess,” — John Phelan, U.S. Navy Secretary

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• “could lead to a period of heightened operational strain for the SSN force, and perhaps a period of weakened conventional deterrence against potential adversaries such as China.” — Congressional Research Service

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