Full Breakdown
Jordan Faces Existential Threat Amid Israeli Annexation Measures
2/18/2026, 2:09:02 AM
Escalating Concerns Over Israeli Actions in the West Bank
Recent Israeli cabinet decisions to treat large areas of the occupied West Bank as state land have intensified fears in Jordan regarding a potential forced transfer of Palestinians. Former Jordanian officials and strategists warn that these measures, which bypass the military administration governing the territory since 1967, signal a shift towards a scenario where Jordan could be seen as the alternative homeland for Palestinians. This shift is perceived as a direct threat to Jordan's national security and stability, particularly under the current Israeli government, which is characterized as far-right.
The Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has described the land registration changes as a “settlement revolution,” effectively erasing Jordanian and Ottoman land registries that have historically protected Palestinian property rights. Mamdouh al-Abbadi, a former deputy prime minister of Jordan, articulated that the “transfer is no longer a threat; it is moving to execution,” indicating a shift from speculation to a tangible crisis.
Military and Diplomatic Responses
In light of these developments, Jordan's military strategists are contemplating drastic measures. Major-General (retired) Mamoun Abu Nowar has suggested that Jordan may need to declare the Jordan Valley a closed military zone to prevent displacement. He emphasized the kingdom's unique social fabric, stating that the tribes and clans within Jordan could serve as a formidable defense against any Israeli incursion. However, he cautioned that the situation remains volatile and could lead to a broader regional conflict.
Jordan's reliance on the United States for support has also come under scrutiny. Analysts, including Oraib al-Rantawi, have noted a significant shift in U.S. policy, suggesting that Washington has increasingly prioritized Israeli interests over Jordanian stability. This perceived abandonment has led to calls within Jordan for a reevaluation of its diplomatic strategies, particularly regarding its relationship with the Palestinian Authority.
Cultural and Security Measures
In response to the escalating crisis, Jordan has resumed its compulsory military service program, known as “Flag Service,” after a 35-year hiatus. Al-Abbadi has called for universal conscription and cultural mobilization, including teaching the Hebrew language for intelligence purposes. He has also urged strict monitoring of border crossings, particularly the King Hussein (Allenby) Bridge, to prevent any slow, camouflaged transfer of Palestinians into Jordan.
The Jordanian government is also intensifying efforts to restore historical documents that prove Palestinian land ownership, which could be vital in legal challenges against Israeli actions. This archival work is seen as crucial in the context of what some analysts describe as a “memory war” over land rights.
Conclusion: A Precarious Future
As Israel continues its annexation measures, Jordan finds itself at a critical juncture. The kingdom's leadership is increasingly vocal about the existential threats posed by these developments, warning that failure to act decisively could lead to irreversible consequences. The consensus among Jordanian elites is that the time for mere diplomatic warnings has passed; the focus has shifted to mobilization and survival. Al-Abbadi's stark warning encapsulates the sentiment in Amman: “If we do not wake up … the strategy will be: ‘Either us or them’. There is no third strategy.”
