Full Breakdown
Climate Change Threatens Global Coffee Production
2/18/2026, 10:08:31 PM
Rising Temperatures in Coffee-Growing Regions
Recent analyses indicate that climate change is significantly impacting coffee production worldwide, particularly in the top five coffee-producing countries: Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Indonesia. These nations, which account for 75% of global coffee supply, experienced an average of 57 additional days of extreme heat annually from 2021 to 2025, with temperatures exceeding 30°C (86°F). Such conditions are detrimental to coffee plants, especially the arabica variety, which constitutes 60-70% of global coffee production. The analysis by Climate Central highlights that all 25 countries producing nearly all of the world’s coffee have faced increased heat, with El Salvador suffering the most, recording 99 extra days of harmful heat.
Economic Implications of Climate Change on Coffee Prices
The surge in extreme temperatures has led to reduced yields and increased prices for coffee. The World Bank reported that prices for arabica and robusta coffee beans nearly doubled from 2023 to 2025, reaching record highs in February 2025. Factors contributing to this price volatility include not only climate change but also U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports, which supply about a third of the coffee consumed in the United States. Kristina Dahl, vice president for science at Climate Central, stated, “In time, these impacts may ripple outward from farms to consumers, right into the quality and cost of your daily brew.”
Challenges for Coffee Farmers
Coffee farmers, particularly smallholders who produce 60% to 80% of the world’s coffee, are facing increasing challenges due to climate change. Dejene Dadi, general manager of the Oromia Coffee Farmers Cooperatives Union in Ethiopia, emphasized the urgent need for government action on climate change to safeguard coffee supplies. The Oromia co-op has initiated measures such as distributing energy-efficient cookstoves to reduce deforestation, which is vital for maintaining the shaded environments that coffee plants require.
Adaptation and Future of Coffee Cultivation
As climate change continues to alter rainfall patterns and increase temperatures, the land suitable for coffee cultivation may decrease by up to 50% by 2050 without adequate adaptation strategies. Farmers are being urged to adopt sustainable practices, such as planting taller trees to provide shade for coffee plants, which can help mitigate the effects of extreme heat. While some regions may become more suitable for coffee cultivation due to changing climate conditions, this shift could lead to deforestation as farmers seek higher elevations with cooler temperatures.
Official Statements & Responses
Climate Central's analysis underscores the urgent need for climate finance to support adaptation efforts among coffee farmers. The organization noted that smallholder farmers received only 36% of the funds needed to adapt to climate impacts in 2021. Without substantial support, the ability of these farmers to cope with the changing climate remains severely limited.
Verbatim Quotes
“Climate change is coming for our coffee.” — Kristina Dahl, Vice President for Science, Climate Central
“To safeguard coffee supplies, governments need to act on climate change.” — Dejene Dadi, General Manager, Oromia Coffee Farmers Cooperatives Union
“Nearly every major coffee-producing country is now experiencing more days of extreme heat that can harm coffee plants, reduce yields and affect quality,” — Kristina Dahl, Vice President for Science, Climate Central
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
While the analysis indicates a clear trend of increasing temperatures and their impact on coffee production, discrepancies exist regarding the specific economic implications and the extent of adaptation measures being implemented by farmers. Further research is needed to quantify the long-term effects of climate change on coffee quality and supply.
