Full Breakdown
Steve Hilton Surges Ahead in California Governor's Race
2/18/2026, 10:49:29 PM
Current Landscape of the Race
Republican Steve Hilton has emerged as a leading candidate in the California gubernatorial race, according to a recent Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey. Hilton, a Fox News contributor and vocal critic of incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom, has garnered 17% support, positioning him ahead of Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell and Republican Sheriff Chad Bianco, who are tied at 14%. Former Rep. Katie Porter follows with 10%, while billionaire Tom Steyer is just behind her. Notably, 21% of voters remain undecided, a decrease from previous polls, indicating a shift in voter sentiment over the past two months.
Implications of a Crowded Democratic Field
The Democratic primary features over half a dozen serious contenders, including Swalwell, Porter, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Experts warn that the lack of a clear front-runner among Democrats could lead to a splintering of voter support, potentially allowing two Republicans to advance to the general election. Paul Mitchell, a California Democratic data expert, highlighted the risk of a scenario where no Democrat makes the runoff, which could significantly impact the general election and the Democratic Party's chances in the midterms.
Key Issues and Candidate Positions
Hilton has raised nearly $6 million for his campaign, making him the top fundraiser, aside from self-funding candidates like Steyer. He has positioned himself against the proposed billionaire tax and mileage tax, while also criticizing the handling of local issues such as the Palisades Fire. Voter concerns are primarily focused on housing affordability and the economy, with 53% indicating they have considered leaving California due to the high cost of living.
Potential Outcomes and Risks
Mitchell's model suggests that Republicans could be the top two vote-getters in approximately 13% of hypothetical outcomes, a concerning prospect for Democrats in a state where they have dominated statewide elections for over a decade. California's unique top-two primary system, which allows all candidates to appear on a single ballot, has been criticized for its potential to create such scenarios. Political strategist Steven Maviglio emphasized the urgency for Democrats to consolidate support to avoid a detrimental outcome in the primary.
Official Statements & Responses
The California Democratic Party is set to hold its annual conference soon, but no endorsements are expected for the primary. Observers note that the lack of a clear Democratic leader, following Newsom's term limit, contributes to the uncertainty surrounding the race.
What's Next
As the primary election approaches on June 2, 2026, the dynamics of the race will continue to evolve. Candidates will need to navigate the crowded field effectively to secure their positions for the general election scheduled for November 5, 2026.
Verbatim Quotes
“The risk is that we have a situation where no Democrat makes the runoff. And if that happened, it would dramatically impact the general election.” — Paul Mitchell, California Democratic data expert
“com) “If you told me there was a 11 percent chance I could get hit by a car if I cross the street, I wouldn't cross the street.” — Steven Maviglio, California Democratic strategist
