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Goldman Sachs Predicts 1.5M Barrels Daily Oil Surplus by 2025

2/19/2026

47 10 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

Goldman Sachs projects a global crude oil surplus of about 1.5 million barrels per day in 2025.
Despite the surplus, crude oil futures have not experienced a sustained price decline in 2026, buoyed by geopolitical risk premiums.
Much of the excess crude remains at sea, leaving traders uncertain about the market's future direction.

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Story summary

Goldman Sachs projects a global crude oil surplus of about 1.5 million barrels per day in 2025.
Despite the surplus, crude oil futures have not experienced a sustained price decline in 2026, buoyed by geopolitical risk premiums.
Much of the excess crude remains at sea, leaving traders uncertain about the market's future direction.