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Canadian Trade Decline Impacts 4Q GDP Growth Prospects

2/19/2026

Summary

Story summary

CIBC Capital Markets’ Andrew Grantham says Canadian net trade is expected to positively impact 4Q GDP.
He notes exports are not recovering strongly from declines in spring 2025.
While exports increased in December, volumes are still nearly 5% lower year over year.
Grantham notes significant sectoral divergence, with products affected by U.S. tariffs underscoring the need to renegotiate CUSMA and maintain tariff exemptions for other covered products.

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Story summary

CIBC Capital Markets’ Andrew Grantham says Canadian net trade is expected to positively impact 4Q GDP.
He notes exports are not recovering strongly from declines in spring 2025.
While exports increased in December, volumes are still nearly 5% lower year over year.
Grantham notes significant sectoral divergence, with products affected by U.S. tariffs underscoring the need to renegotiate CUSMA and maintain tariff exemptions for other covered products.