Full Breakdown
Supercomputer Simulations Reveal Challenges of Cislunar Satellite Orbits
2/20/2026, 2:18:14 AM
Overview of the Study
Researchers at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) conducted a study using supercomputers to simulate the orbits of approximately 1 million theoretical satellites in cislunar space, the region between Earth and the moon. The findings indicate that less than 10% of these satellites would maintain stable orbits long enough to justify their deployment. This research highlights the complexities involved in expanding human orbital capabilities beyond low Earth orbit (LEO).
Key Findings on Orbital Stability
The simulations revealed that while about 54% of the satellites remained stable for at least one year, only 9.7% sustained stability over the entire six-year simulation period. The results, published in August 2025 in the journal *Research Notes of the AAS*, suggest that despite the low survival rate, there are approximately 97,000 viable stable orbits in cislunar space. This opens up potential for future exploration and infrastructure development, particularly for supporting human activities on the moon.
Methodology and Computational Challenges
The LLNL team utilized two supercomputers, Quartz and Ruby, to perform the simulations, which required around 1.6 million CPU hours—equivalent to 182 years of processing time for a single computer. The researchers designed the trajectories to encompass a wide range of potential orbital scenarios, acknowledging the unpredictability of cislunar orbits compared to the more stable LEO trajectories. Study lead author Travis Yeager emphasized the need for a broad approach, stating, "We tried to go into it pretending we knew nothing about this space."
Implications for Future Space Exploration
The study's findings are significant for the future of satellite deployment in cislunar space, which is seen as a critical area for enhancing Earth's infrastructure and supporting future lunar colonies. The research indicates that understanding which orbits are unstable is just as valuable as identifying stable ones, providing insights that could inform future missions and satellite designs.
Criticism & Opposition
While the study presents valuable data, some experts caution that the low survival rate of simulated satellites may not fully account for advancements in satellite technology and orbital management strategies. Critics argue that as the industry evolves, the actual deployment success rates could differ from the simulations.
Verbatim Quotes
“From a data-science point of view, this is an interesting data set,” — Travis Yeager, Research Scientist, LLNL
“The Earth is not a point source,” — Travis Yeager, Research Scientist, LLNL
“If you want to know where a [cislunar] satellite is in a week, there's no equation that can actually tell you where it's going to be,” — Travis Yeager, Research Scientist, LLNL
The study underscores the necessity for continued research and development in satellite technology and orbital mechanics as humanity looks to expand its presence beyond Earth.
