Texas Senate Primaries Heat Up Ahead of March Contests

As early voting commenced on February 17, 2026, the Texas Senate primaries have emerged as a critical battleground for both the Republican and Democratic parties. With the primaries set for March 3, candidates are vying for their party's nomination in a state that has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994. The stakes are high, as the outcomes will significantly influence the general election and the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.

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The Republican primary features incumbent Senator John Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt. Cornyn, a four-term senator, is facing a formidable challenge from Paxton, who has garnered support from the MAGA base despite his legal controversies, including impeachment proceedings in 2023. Paxton has framed the race as a clash between Trump's movement and the Republican establishment, asserting, “I am the only electable Republican in this primary.” Meanwhile, Cornyn has warned that a Paxton nomination could lead to significant losses for the GOP, stating, “We will have an election day massacre.”

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Polling data indicates Paxton leads with 38% support among likely GOP primary voters, followed by Cornyn at 31% and Hunt at 17%. The split in the Republican field raises the possibility of a runoff election in May, which could favor Paxton due to his dedicated base.

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On the Democratic side, the primary pits U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett against State Representative James Talarico. Crockett, known for her sharp exchanges with Republicans, has positioned herself as a fighter for disaffected voters, while Talarico emphasizes a more inclusive approach aimed at bridging divides. Recent polling shows Crockett leading Talarico 47% to 39% among likely Democratic voters.

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Both candidates have leveraged social media to amplify their messages, with Talarico recently gaining national attention after a controversy involving CBS and Stephen Colbert. This incident reportedly boosted his fundraising, raising $2.5 million in just 24 hours. Crockett acknowledged the potential advantage this gave Talarico, stating, “I think it probably gave my opponent the boost he was looking for.”

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The financial stakes in these primaries are substantial, with total ad spending reaching $92.8 million, making it the second most expensive Senate primary on record. Republican spending has predominantly supported Cornyn, while Talarico has received significant backing from Democratic donors. The intense competition has energized voters, with party leaders expressing optimism about turnout.

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Political analysts suggest that the dynamics of the primaries could reshape the general election landscape. Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University, noted, “There’s cautious optimism” among Democrats, while emphasizing the need for a strong candidate to challenge the eventual GOP nominee.

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Critics within both parties have raised concerns about electability. Some Democratic strategists question Crockett's viability in a general election, while Republican leaders worry that Paxton's legal issues could jeopardize the party's chances in November.

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As the primaries approach, both parties are mobilizing their bases, with early voting expected to play a crucial role in determining the nominees. The outcomes will not only influence the Senate race but could also signal broader trends in Texas politics as the state grapples with shifting demographics and political sentiments.

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