Full Breakdown
U.S. Gasoline Price Projections and Influencing Factors for 2026-2027
2/21/2026, 2:34:03 AM
EIA Lowers Gasoline Price Forecasts
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its projections for regular gasoline retail prices in the United States, anticipating an average of $2.91 per gallon in 2026 and $2.93 per gallon in 2027. This adjustment reflects a decrease from earlier forecasts, which estimated prices at $2.92 and $2.95 per gallon, respectively. The EIA's latest short-term energy outlook (STEO) indicates that the average gasoline price was $3.10 per gallon in 2025. A quarterly breakdown predicts fluctuations throughout 2026 and 2027, with prices expected to peak at $3.05 per gallon in the second quarter of 2027.
Current Gas Prices and Trends
As of February 19, 2026, the average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. stands at $2.929 per gallon, showing a slight increase from $2.923 the previous day. This marks a decrease of 24.5 cents per gallon compared to the same time last year. In California, however, prices are significantly higher, averaging $4.42 per gallon, which is approximately 51.1% above the national average. The state's prices have fluctuated between $3.98 and $4.73 over the past year.
Seasonal Influences on Gas Prices
The transition to summer-blend gasoline, which is more expensive to produce, is contributing to rising prices in California. This seasonal shift begins as early as February, with the state required to adopt summer-blend fuel by April 1. The American Automobile Association (AAA) notes that this transition, combined with refinery maintenance, typically leads to increased prices at the pump. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, emphasizes that while prices are currently rising modestly, they could accelerate due to refinery maintenance and geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran.
Geopolitical and Economic Factors
Crude oil prices, which significantly influence gasoline prices, have remained relatively stable in the upper $50s to mid-$70s per barrel since late 2024. However, geopolitical events, including tensions in the Middle East and sanctions on Iran, could introduce volatility into the market. The EIA reports that about 47% of gasoline prices are attributed to crude oil costs, with the remainder covering refining, distribution, marketing, and taxes.
Criticism and Market Dynamics
Critics argue that the high prices in California are exacerbated by limited refining capacity and regulatory requirements. The state has fewer refineries, making it more susceptible to price increases during maintenance periods. Additionally, the recent shutdown of two significant refineries in California has impacted gasoline supply across the West Coast, affecting markets in Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, and British Columbia.
Verbatim Quotes
- “the national average price of gasoline continues to grind higher” — Patrick De Haan, Head of Petroleum Analysis, GasBuddy
- “The unknown is how geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran will continue to impact crude oil prices,” — Marie Dodds, Public Affairs Director, AAA
Conclusion
The EIA's revised gasoline price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 reflect a complex interplay of seasonal transitions, geopolitical tensions, and market dynamics. As the U.S. navigates these factors, consumers can expect fluctuations in gasoline prices, particularly in states like California, where prices are consistently higher than the national average.
