Rising Tensions: U.S. Accusations of China's Nuclear Expansion

On February 23, 2026, U.S. officials accused China of significantly expanding its nuclear arsenal and conducting covert nuclear tests, particularly highlighting an alleged explosion at the Lop Nur facility in June 2020. Dr. Christopher Yeaw, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, stated that China is on track to possess the fissile material for over 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, a claim that underscores concerns about a potential arms race following the expiration of the New START treaty between the U.S. and Russia.

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The New START treaty, which lapsed on February 5, 2026, was the last significant arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia, limiting each country to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads. The treaty's expiration has raised alarms about a new arms race, particularly as the U.S. seeks to include China in future negotiations. Yeaw criticized the New START framework as flawed, arguing it did not account for China's rapid nuclear buildup.

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U.S. intelligence suggests that China conducted a nuclear test in June 2020, which registered a magnitude of 2.75 on the Richter scale. Yeaw indicated that the seismic data from this event was consistent with a nuclear explosion rather than a mining incident. However, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies found no conclusive evidence of such an explosion, highlighting discrepancies in the assessment of China's nuclear activities.

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China has vehemently denied the U.S. allegations, with Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, labeling the claims as "entirely unfounded" and a pretext for the U.S. to resume its own nuclear testing. Liu emphasized China's commitment to a no-first-use policy and adherence to its nuclear testing moratorium, which has been in place since 1996.

China Developing Next-Gen Nuclear Weapons, U.S. Intelligence Says

Critics of the U.S. approach argue that the accusations against China may be politically motivated, aimed at justifying a renewed focus on U.S. nuclear capabilities. The Pentagon has expressed concerns that China's modernization efforts could provide it with new military options, potentially escalating tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly regarding Taiwan.

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As the U.S. prepares for potential nuclear tests and seeks to engage China in arms control discussions, the international community watches closely. The evolving nuclear landscape poses significant implications for global security, with experts warning that without a new framework that includes China, the risks of miscalculation and conflict could increase.

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• “Despite its claims to the contrary, China has deliberately and without constraint, massively expanded its nuclear arsenal without transparency or any indication of China’s intent or end point,” — Dr. Christopher Yeaw, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control

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• “US allegation about China conducting a nuclear test are entirely unfounded.” — Liu Pengyu, Spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington

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• “There is very little possibility I would say that it is anything but an explosion, a singular explosion.” — Dr. Christopher Yeaw, on the June 2020 test

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This situation reflects a critical juncture in international arms control, with the potential for significant geopolitical consequences as nations navigate the complexities of nuclear deterrence and security.

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