Internal Power Struggles Amidst Unrest in Iran

Recent reports indicate that former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and his foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, attempted to marginalize Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a period of significant nationwide unrest. This initiative, which took place on January 7-8, aimed to remove Khamenei from decision-making processes as protests peaked, resulting in numerous executions according to opposition claims. The effort was thwarted by Ali Larijani, who has since gained substantial authority and is described as effectively managing the country. Following the exposure of the plan, Rouhani and Zarif reportedly faced house arrest, and several reformist figures were temporarily detained.

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Ali Larijani, appointed as secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council in August, has emerged as a central figure in Iran's political landscape. His authority has expanded significantly, overseeing the government's response to protests and coordinating with allies such as Russia, Qatar, and Oman. Larijani's role also includes managing nuclear negotiations with the United States and preparing for potential military conflicts. Analysts suggest that while Larijani holds considerable influence, he is not a "supreme ruler," and the principle of rule by Islamic jurist remains vital to Iran's governance structure.

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Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has consolidated power over more than three decades, effectively suppressing internal dissent and maintaining control through the Revolutionary Guard. His leadership has faced multiple challenges, including reform movements and widespread protests, particularly following the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022. Khamenei's regime has been characterized by a harsh crackdown on dissent, with reports of significant casualties and human rights abuses during protests. Despite these challenges, Khamenei has managed to maintain a grip on power, positioning Iran as a regional force through alliances with groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.

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Critics of the Iranian regime highlight the systemic issues that have led to ongoing unrest, including corruption and economic mismanagement. The failed coup attempt against Khamenei reflects the internal divisions within the government and the precarious nature of his authority. Analysts caution that while Larijani's rise may indicate a shift in power dynamics, it does not fundamentally alter the regime's structure or its reliance on clerical rule.

The Independent

In response to the unrest and international threats, Khamenei has vowed that the Iranian nation will not surrender, warning of "irreparable damage" to any intervening forces. The Iranian government has reportedly entered a "survival mode," with officials indicating that Khamenei's leadership remains crucial amidst the turmoil.

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There are discrepancies in reports regarding the extent of the unrest and the government's response. While opposition sources claim thousands have been executed, official figures remain unverified. Additionally, the internal dynamics of power within the Iranian government, particularly concerning Larijani's influence versus that of President Masoud Pezeshkian, are not fully transparent.

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• “4 View gallery Rouhani and Zarif, architects of the failed plan ( Photo: AFP ) “Larijani is not the only one the supreme leader trusts.” — Danny Citrinowicz, Research Fellow, Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies

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• “If accurate, he said, they indicate that Iran’s system seeks to ensure functional continuity if the supreme leader is killed or incapacitated.” — Danny Citrinowicz

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As Iran navigates this complex political landscape, the balance of power remains fragile, with the potential for further unrest looming on the horizon.

The Independent