U.S. Soybean Exports Surge Amid Declining Global Market Share

Despite a significant decline in exports to China, U.S. soybean exports have reached record levels in the 2024/2025 marketing year. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), shipments to markets outside China surged to their highest levels since 2018, largely driven by lower U.S. prices compared to Brazil, which were influenced by Chinese tariffs on U.S. products. The marketing year runs from September 1 to August 31.

Capital Press

The USDA's grain and oilseeds outlook, released on February 19, projects that U.S. soybean exports for the 2025/2026 marketing year will decline to approximately 1.58 billion bushels, marking the lowest level in 13 years and a record-low share of 23% of global soybean trade. This reduction is attributed to ongoing tariff measures affecting shipments to China, which had previously imported an average of 28.7 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually from 2021 to 2024.

Capital Press

In the 2024/2025 marketing year, U.S. soybean exports grew nearly 13% year-over-year, totaling 68.7 million metric tons. Whole bean exports increased by 10.7%, while soybean meal and oil exports rose by 13.9% and 304%, respectively. Virginia Houston, director of government affairs for the American Soybean Association, noted that soybean oil exports were particularly strong, driven by demand from India, the largest importer of vegetable oils.

Capital Press

Looking ahead, U.S. soybean production is projected to rise from 4.26 billion bushels in 2024/2025 to 4.45 billion bushels in 2026/2027. China remains the largest market for U.S. soybeans, despite a slight decline in both value and volume. Houston indicated that China has committed to purchasing 12 million metric tons for the remainder of the marketing year and a minimum of 25 million metric tons annually from 2026 to 2028. However, the dynamics of trade policy remain uncertain, particularly as President Donald Trump is expected to visit China in April.

Capital Press

The U.S. Soybean Export Council (USEC) has identified significant growth in alternative markets over the past five years, with Turkey, Vietnam, Venezuela, Colombia, and Bangladesh showing increases of 342%, 89%, 68%, 48%, and 40%, respectively. Houston emphasized the importance of diversifying markets and increasing demand for U.S. soy in these regions, citing a recent reciprocal trading agreement with Bangladesh as a positive development.

Capital Press

Despite the surge in exports to other markets, there are concerns among U.S. farmers regarding the need for certainty and market access with China, their largest customer. The volatility of trade policies and the potential for shifts in purchasing behavior by China add to the uncertainty surrounding future exports.

Capital Press

• “Our farmers continue to stress the need for certainty and market access with our biggest customer, while at the same time our partners at USSEC work to continue to diversify those markets and increase U.S. soy demand in other markets outside China.” — Virginia Houston, Director of Government Affairs, American Soybean Association

Capital Press

• “Even though China was down, we did see other markets buying more,” — Virginia Houston, Director of Government Affairs, American Soybean Association

Capital Press

The evolving landscape of U.S. soybean exports highlights the complexities of international trade and the necessity for adaptability in response to shifting market dynamics.

Capital Press