Montana Senate Race: Steve Daines Leads Amid Democratic Challenges

Republican Senator Steve Daines is positioned as the frontrunner in the upcoming Montana Senate race, according to a recent poll conducted by American Pulse Research & Polling. The poll, released on February 23, 2026, indicates Daines holds a significant lead over potential Democratic challengers, with a 19-point advantage over former state representative Reilly Neill and a 14-point lead over Seth Bodnar, the president of the University of Montana. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, following the primary on June 2, 2026.

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• Steve Daines: First elected in 2014, Daines has garnered support from former President Donald Trump, who endorsed him in April 2025. Daines has previously won reelection against notable opponents, including former Governor Steve Bullock.

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• Reilly Neill: A former Democratic state representative, Neill is campaigning as a grassroots candidate, emphasizing her independence from political action committees. She has positioned herself as a different kind of Democrat focused on universal health care and public education.

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• Seth Bodnar: Bodnar, a former Army Special Forces officer, is speculated to run as an independent. His potential candidacy could complicate the race dynamics, especially if it splits the anti-Daines vote.

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The American Pulse Research & Polling survey shows Daines leading Neill by 56% to 37% and Bodnar by 54% to 40%. If Bodnar runs as an independent, Daines's lead narrows to 9 points, indicating a more competitive landscape. The poll surveyed 607 likely voters and has a margin of error of ±3.98 percentage points. Betting markets also favor Daines, with Kalshi giving Republicans a 94% chance of winning and Polymarket showing Daines at 84%.

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Despite Montana's historical openness to electing Democrats, recent trends indicate a challenging environment for the party. The state has consistently voted Republican in presidential elections since 1996, and polarization has made it increasingly difficult for Democrats to secure statewide offices. Jon Tester, a prominent Democratic figure, lost his reelection bid in 2024, further complicating the party's prospects.

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Critics argue that the fragmentation among Democratic candidates could hinder their chances against Daines. Neill has expressed concerns about the potential for Bodnar to act as a spoiler in the race, stating, “We don’t need spoilers.” Meanwhile, Daines has emphasized his commitment to Montana values, stating, “It is my greatest honor to serve the people of Montana in the U.S. Senate.”

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As the race develops, both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball currently classify the contest as safe or solid for the GOP, indicating a strong advantage for Daines. The upcoming primary and the potential candidacy of Bodnar as an independent will be critical factors to watch as the election approaches.

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• “I’m on the ground in Montana growing a grassroots campaign. No political operatives work on my campaign and I don’t take dirty PAC money. It’s clear I’m the candidate we can get behind. We don’t need spoilers. I rely on hard work and engaging with Montanans on their terms, not slick D.C. consultants.” — Reilly Neill, Former State Representative

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• “It is my greatest honor to serve the people of Montana in the U.S. Senate. From cutting taxes and securing our border, to protecting our Second Amendment and standing up against government overreach, my priority has always been to put Montana first.” — Steve Daines, U.S. Senator

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This race will be closely monitored as it unfolds, with implications for both state and national political landscapes.

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