Insights on Iran's Regime Resilience Amidst U.S. Tensions

The Iranian regime, facing unprecedented domestic protests and international scrutiny, remains steadfast against potential military actions from the United States. Barry Rosen, a former hostage during the 1979 Iran hostage crisis, asserts that the regime will “stick together like glue” and is unlikely to collapse easily, regardless of U.S. military pressure. Rosen, who endured torture during his captivity, emphasizes that the regime has “everything to lose” and will fight back if provoked.

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Protests erupted in Iran in January 2026, primarily driven by the declining value of the Iranian Rial and widespread dissatisfaction with the regime. These protests marked the most significant domestic uprising since the 1979 revolution, but the Iranian government has responded with severe crackdowns, including mass detentions and executions. Reports indicate that as many as 30,000 individuals may have died amid the unrest. The regime's aggressive stance is underscored by recent government-sponsored demonstrations, including the display of military might with missile parades in Tehran.

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While some experts, like Siamak Namazi, argue that the Iranian regime is nearing collapse, they caution that democracy may not follow. The panel discussion at Harvard Kennedy School highlighted the challenges faced by opposition groups, which struggle to unify around a common vision for Iran's future. Hadi Ghaemi, director of the Center for Human Rights in Iran, described the regime's violent response to protests as a “calculated atrocity,” suggesting that neither military intervention nor diplomatic negotiations would effectively address the ongoing violence against the Iranian populace.

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Rosen notes that the Iranian leadership perceives itself as a moral force representing the oppressed against Western powers, particularly the U.S. This self-image fuels their resistance to foreign pressure. Despite acknowledging the U.S. military's superiority, he warns that Iran has developed significant military capabilities, including hypersonic missiles and drones, which could escalate regional tensions if a conflict arises.

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Former political prisoners and human rights advocates express frustration over the lack of global accountability for the Iranian regime. Morad Tahbaz, an environmentalist and former detainee, lamented the absence of punitive measures against the regime, highlighting the ongoing suffering of those who have endured torture and separation from their families. The panelists emphasized the need for a unified approach to support the Iranian people and hold the regime accountable for its actions.

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As tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate, the potential for military conflict looms large. Rosen advocates for diplomatic solutions to reduce nuclear tensions, while others call for a more robust international response to the regime's human rights abuses. The future of Iran remains uncertain, with the regime's resilience tested by both internal dissent and external pressures. The international community's role in supporting the Iranian populace and addressing the regime's actions will be crucial in shaping the country's trajectory.

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• “I have seen this regime up close before – this regime will go down fighting. It has everything to lose,” — Barry Rosen, Former Iranian Hostage

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• “The regime is now almost looked at as a foreign presence.” — Hadi Ghaemi, Director of the Center for Human Rights in Iran

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• “It’s painful to know that what you’ve been through, the interrogations, the torture, the separation from your families, everything, and we finally get out, and after a while, it’s almost like nothing has happened,” — Morad Tahbaz, Iranian Environmentalist

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