Understanding the Shift in El Niño and Its Impact on Global Temperatures

Recent research has revealed significant changes in the labeling and understanding of the El Niño and La Niña weather patterns, driven by the ongoing impacts of climate change. The study published in *Nature Geoscience* highlights how the natural El Niño cycle, which influences global weather, is both affected by and contributing to the rising temperatures observed over the past few years. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated its criteria for identifying these cycles, indicating that more events may now be classified as La Niña, while fewer will qualify as El Niño due to the rapid changes in global temperatures.

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Earth's average monthly temperature has experienced a notable spike since early 2023, continuing through 2025. This increase is attributed to a combination of factors, including accelerated global warming, reduced pollution from maritime activities, underwater volcanic eruptions, and heightened solar output. The study indicates that approximately 75% of the recent changes in Earth's energy imbalance—an essential factor in temperature regulation—can be traced back to a shift from a prolonged La Niña phase to an El Niño phase, which is characterized by warmer ocean temperatures.

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From 2020 to 2023, the planet experienced an unusual "triple dip" La Niña, a phenomenon where the cooling effects of La Niña persisted without an intervening El Niño. This prolonged cooling resulted in warm water being trapped at deeper ocean levels, leading to a cooler surface temperature and a reduction in the energy emitted into space. Yu Kosaka, a climate scientist at the University of Tokyo and co-author of the study, likened this process to a fever in humans, where a higher body temperature results in increased energy emission.

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The study further breaks down the sources of the energy imbalance contributing to the recent temperature rise. Approximately 23% of this imbalance is attributed to the extended La Niña period, while just over half is linked to greenhouse gases emitted from the combustion of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and gas. Other factors also play a role, but the research underscores the significant impact of human activities on climate dynamics.

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Jennifer Francis, a scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, which was not involved in the study, expressed agreement with the findings, noting that they clarify the observed increase in energy imbalance that some researchers had previously associated with accelerated warming. This consensus among scientists emphasizes the importance of understanding the evolving nature of El Niño and La Niña in the context of climate change.

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The evolving dynamics of El Niño and La Niña, influenced by human-induced climate change, are reshaping global temperature patterns. As scientists continue to study these phenomena, the implications for weather forecasting and climate policy remain critical. Understanding these shifts is essential for addressing the broader challenges posed by climate change.

The Hindu