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UK Immigration Crackdown Could Trigger Tax Hikes, Spending Cuts

2/26/2026

Summary

Story summary

The Institute for Fiscal Studies warns the UK's immigration crackdown could force Chancellor Rachel Reeves to raise taxes or cut spending.
A decline in net migration since 2023 may reduce tax receipts and slow growth.
If immigration stays below forecasts, Reeves' fiscal plans ahead of the spring statement and Autumn Budget could face difficulties.
The Office for Budget Responsibility projects net migration at 204,000 in 2025, below earlier estimates.

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Story summary

The Institute for Fiscal Studies warns the UK's immigration crackdown could force Chancellor Rachel Reeves to raise taxes or cut spending.
A decline in net migration since 2023 may reduce tax receipts and slow growth.
If immigration stays below forecasts, Reeves' fiscal plans ahead of the spring statement and Autumn Budget could face difficulties.
The Office for Budget Responsibility projects net migration at 204,000 in 2025, below earlier estimates.