Stalled Progress in Gaza Peace Plan Amid Disarmament Disputes

Progress in the U.S.-brokered Gaza peace plan has stalled primarily due to disagreements regarding the disarmament of Hamas. Israel has threatened to resume full-scale military operations if Hamas does not comply with disarmament demands swiftly. The second phase of the ceasefire, declared to have begun in January, involves Hamas disarming, Israeli forces withdrawing, and a Palestinian interim administration taking control of Gaza, supported by an international stabilization force (ISF). However, the specifics of this plan remain vague, particularly regarding the sequencing of these actions.

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The peace initiative is overseen by Donald Trump’s Board of Peace, which includes international leaders and a Palestinian technocratic committee known as the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG). Israeli officials, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, have indicated that the U.S. will soon issue an ultimatum to Hamas regarding disarmament. Meanwhile, the NCAG is preparing to manage Gaza but faces significant challenges, including funding delays and security arrangements.

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Critics argue that the disarmament plan is unrealistic. Analysts like Michael Milshtein and Muhammad Shehada have expressed doubts about Hamas's willingness to comply with demands that require it to surrender its weapons without guarantees of security against rival factions. Shehada noted that Hamas is likely to reject the disarmament plan as it would leave them vulnerable during a transition to NCAG governance. Furthermore, the Israeli approach has been criticized for potentially leading to renewed conflict, with Shehada suggesting that it could provoke Hamas to prepare for further military engagement.

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Israeli officials have stated that if Hamas does not disarm, Israel will have international backing to resume military operations. Smotrich has indicated that he expects disarmament to fail, suggesting a future Israeli occupation of Gaza. In contrast, the UAE has pledged significant financial support for Gaza's reconstruction, emphasizing its commitment to humanitarian efforts in the region. However, the UAE's plans for a housing compound in Gaza, which would employ local workers, have not yet been formally announced and await Israeli approval.

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The ongoing stalemate over Hamas's disarmament raises concerns about the viability of the peace plan. The lack of clarity regarding the sequencing of disarmament and other steps could lead to a breakdown of negotiations. As tensions remain high, analysts warn that the situation could escalate into renewed conflict, undermining the efforts of the Board of Peace and the broader goal of stabilizing Gaza.

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• “It seems more wishful thinking than a serious plan,” — Michael Milshtein, Head of the Palestinian Studies Forum

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• “The details in the Israel Hayom report would be promptly rejected by Hamas,” — Muhammad Shehada, Gaza Analyst

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• “In the end, Israel will occupy the Gaza Strip, implement a military government and establish Jewish settlements there,” — Bezalel Smotrich, Israeli Finance Minister

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• “This isn’t a situation that lends itself to positive outcomes.” — HA Hellyer, Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute

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