Florida Governor's Race: Byron Donalds Leads David Jolly in Latest Poll

A recent poll conducted by the James Madison Institute from February 13-16, 2026, indicates that Republican Representative Byron Donalds holds a narrow lead over former Representative David Jolly, who is running as a Democrat after previously being a Republican. The poll surveyed 1,200 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.77 percentage points. In a general election matchup, Donalds leads Jolly by five percentage points, with 41% of respondents favoring Donalds compared to 36% for Jolly. An additional 6% support state Senator Jason Pizzo, an independent candidate, while 17% remain undecided.

Newsweek

In the Republican primary, Donalds also leads with 33% support, followed by Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins at 15%, former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner at 9%, and businessman James Fishback at 3%. On the Democratic side, Jolly leads Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings by 8 points (31% to 23%), with 44% of voters undecided. The undecided voters could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the race.

Newsweek

Donalds has received an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, which appears to resonate with Republican voters. According to the poll, 63% of Republicans indicated they would be more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Trump. This endorsement is seen as a significant advantage for Donalds, as his chief strategist emphasized that Trump’s support aligns with the desires of Florida Republicans.

Newsweek

Despite Donalds' lead, the Florida gubernatorial race is not currently viewed as a top target for Democrats. Betting odds reflect a strong Republican advantage, with Kalshi giving Republicans an 85% chance of winning and Polymarket an 83% chance. Forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as safe or solid for Republicans.

Newsweek

Brad Herold, an adviser to Donalds, commented on the polling landscape, stating, “@ByronDonalds will be the fourth straight Governor of Florida that I have worked for and never once has the thought crossed my mind, ‘I wonder what JMI‘s polling says.’” He reiterated this sentiment in a recent post, indicating confidence in Donalds' campaign.

Newsweek

While the Republican camp expresses optimism, the Democratic Party is working to regain competitiveness in Florida, which has shifted rightward over the past decade. Democrats hope that Trump’s declining approval ratings may provide an opportunity to challenge Republican dominance in the state.

Newsweek

Candidates will continue to campaign vigorously as they prepare for the primary election scheduled for August 18, 2026. The coming months will be critical for both parties as they seek to solidify voter support ahead of the general election.

Newsweek