Rising Threat: One Nation's Surge in Victoria's Political Landscape

The Victorian Liberal Party faces a significant challenge from the right as One Nation gains traction ahead of the November state election. Historically, One Nation garnered only 0.22% of first-preference votes in the last election, but recent polling indicates a dramatic increase in support, with estimates ranging from 11% to 26.5%. This shift has prompted concern among senior Liberal figures, particularly as One Nation prepares to field candidates in every lower and upper house seat, marking its most ambitious campaign yet.

The Guardian

The Liberal Party's internal divisions have long hindered its electoral success. Former Premier Jeff Kennett has suggested that the party should consider directing preferences to One Nation and potentially govern in a minority with them and other minor parties. However, Liberal leader Jess Wilson has refrained from making any definitive statements regarding preference arrangements, emphasizing that such decisions will be made closer to the election.

The Guardian

Despite the rising support for One Nation, skepticism remains within the Liberal ranks about its ability to surpass the Coalition in first-preference votes. Many party members believe that One Nation's votes will primarily benefit either Labor or the Liberals, depending on the seat. A senior Liberal noted, “The real question is whether One Nation will direct their preferences to us,” highlighting the uncertainty surrounding electoral dynamics.

The Guardian

The possibility of defections from the Coalition to One Nation adds another layer of complexity to the situation. Federal MP Barnaby Joyce acknowledged that discussions regarding potential switches have occurred among Victorian Coalition MPs, with some speculating that Moira Deeming could defect if she loses her preselection bid. Such a move would not only bolster One Nation's representation but also provide Labor with additional political leverage.

The Guardian

Labor officials have been quick to criticize the Liberal Party's perceived alignment with One Nation. Minister for Multicultural Affairs Ingrid Stitt accused Wilson of failing to distance herself from Pauline Hanson’s controversial remarks about Muslims, stating, “Jess Wilson refused to rule out cutting a deal with One Nation.” This criticism underscores the risks the Liberal Party faces in alienating Victoria’s multicultural communities, which have historically been a challenge for them.

The Guardian

Jess Wilson has maintained that preference matters are internal decisions that will be addressed closer to the election. Meanwhile, Labor has positioned itself as the protector of Victoria's multicultural identity, emphasizing that only they can safeguard the state's diverse communities.

The Guardian

While polling suggests a significant rise in One Nation's support, there are caveats regarding the accuracy of these surveys, including sample sizes and demographic representation. Additionally, the potential impact of Liberal preferences on One Nation's electoral chances remains uncertain, with varying opinions within the party.

The Guardian

As the November election approaches, the Liberal Party must navigate its internal divisions and the rising influence of One Nation. The decisions made in the coming months regarding candidate selections and preference arrangements will be critical in shaping the party's electoral strategy and its relationship with the electorate.

The Guardian