Story perspectives

US Services PMI Hits 10-Month Low Amid Growth Slowdown

3/2/2026

Summary

US Services PMI Decline

The US ISM Services PMI fell to 52.3 in February, a 10-month low, but still signals expansion.
New business growth softened and export orders declined sharply.
Employment rose marginally amid subdued demand and high costs.
Backlogs of work rose significantly due to capacity constraints and weather disruptions.
Input cost inflation remains high as service prices reach seven-month peak, and business expectations rise to 13-month high but stay below long-term average.

Summary

Economic Indicators Release

Key indicators will be released this week, including US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Retail Sales, and ISM PMIs.
OPEC's eight core members meet on March 1 to discuss output increases, signaling rises of around 137,000 BPD.
In the eurozone, inflation is mixed: France and Spain beat expectations, Germany lags, keeping the ECB cautious on rate cuts.
US consumer spending remains resilient, with February payroll growth expected, and analysts monitor policy implications.

History

Historical Context

The 2008 financial crisis marked a significant downturn for the U.S. economy, with GDP contracting by 4.3% and the ISM Services PMI plummeting to 41.6. This downturn reflected broader economic trends, including a shift towards the services sector, which accounted for about 80% of GDP by 1996. The current PMI of 52.3 indicates ongoing economic challenges, reminiscent of past recessions.

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US Services PMI Decline

The US ISM Services PMI fell to 52.3 in February, a 10-month low, but still signals expansion.
New business growth softened and export orders declined sharply.
Employment rose marginally amid subdued demand and high costs.
Backlogs of work rose significantly due to capacity constraints and weather disruptions.
Input cost inflation remains high as service prices reach seven-month peak, and business expectations rise to 13-month high but stay below long-term average.

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