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El Niño Could Drive Record Temperatures by 2027

3/2/2026

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Story summary
  • The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says there is a 50–60% chance of El Niño developing during July–September, with potential to push global temperatures to record highs if it forms.
  • El Niño occurred in 2023–2024 and made 2023 the second-hottest year on record.
  • Experts say 2026 could be record-breaking, with effects peaking in 2027.
  • La Niña was weak and short-lived.
  • NOAA has introduced a tracking method, the Relative Oceanic Nino Index.