Full Breakdown
Challenges Ahead for the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct in the South China Sea
3/2/2026, 10:34:10 PM
Current State of Negotiations
As the Philippines prepares to assume the rotating chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2026, experts express skepticism regarding the finalization of a Code of Conduct (COC) for the South China Sea. Wu Shicun, a prominent South China Sea expert and founding president of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, stated that it is “100 per cent not likely” that the COC will be signed this year. He emphasized that the Philippines is likely to reference the 2016 arbitration ruling, which invalidated China's extensive claims in the region, complicating negotiations.
Historical Context and Recent Developments
The South China Sea has been a focal point of geopolitical tension, particularly between China and the United States. In 2025, confrontations escalated as China increased its military presence, with the China Coast Guard (CCG) doubling its patrols and engaging in aggressive actions against Filipino fishing vessels. Concurrently, Vietnam has been enhancing its military infrastructure in the Spratly Islands, reflecting a broader regional response to China's assertiveness.
Negotiations for the ASEAN-China COC saw some progress in 2025, with Malaysia, as ASEAN Chair, facilitating discussions that reportedly reached nearly 70% agreement on the draft. However, significant contentious issues remain unresolved, including the geographic scope and legal status of the COC, as well as the role of external powers.
Implications of U.S.-China Rivalry
The ongoing U.S.-China rivalry further complicates the COC negotiations. The Trump administration's National Security Strategy underscored the importance of the Indo-Pacific region and emphasized collaboration with allies to deter China. In 2025, the U.S. increased military engagement with the Philippines, conducting multiple joint exercises and deploying advanced military assets. This heightened military presence is viewed as a countermeasure to China's territorial claims.
China's military maneuvers, including the deployment of aircraft carriers and live-fire exercises, signal its intent to assert dominance in the South China Sea. Analysts suggest that China may exploit U.S. military commitments elsewhere to further its claims in the region.
Criticism and Opposition
Critics argue that the current draft of the COC may entrench China's influence in the South China Sea, particularly if it is perceived as weak or non-binding. The Philippines is unlikely to accept an agreement that does not adequately address its sovereignty concerns, while China is expected to resist any legally binding terms that could limit its operations. The potential for miscalculations or accidents remains a concern, especially given the tense military dynamics.
Looking Ahead
As the Philippines takes on the ASEAN Chair role, the path to a finalized COC remains fraught with challenges. The Philippines aims to conclude negotiations by the end of 2026, but the complexities of U.S.-China relations and regional security dynamics will likely hinder progress. The future of the COC will depend on balancing the interests of ASEAN member states and the competing claims of China, alongside the strategic imperatives of the United States.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I believe it cannot be successfully negotiated under the Philippines’ watch. They will inevitably bring up the arbitration ruling,” — Wu Shicun, Expert on South China Sea
- “At the end of the year, Malaysia’s foreign minister announced that negotiations with China ‘made significant progress, with nearly 70 per cent of the content agreed upon’.” — Malaysian Foreign Minister
The situation in the South China Sea remains dynamic, with the potential for both cooperation and conflict as regional powers navigate their interests in this strategically vital area.
