China’s Two Sessions: Military Purges and Economic Strategies

This week, thousands of delegates are convening in Beijing for China's annual Two Sessions, comprising the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). The NPC, which holds significant legislative power, is expected to unveil the government’s annual work report and set a GDP growth target anticipated to fall below 5% for the first time. This year’s sessions are particularly crucial as they mark the official launch of the 15th five-year plan, outlining China’s strategic priorities for 2026-2030 amid rising geopolitical tensions.

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In a notable development, the CPPCC has voted to remove three retired military generals—Han Weiguo, Liu Lei, and Gao Jin—just days after the NPC expelled nine military officials. This wave of purges is part of President Xi Jinping's broader anti-corruption campaign targeting the military, which has seen over 100 senior officers removed since 2022. Analysts suggest that these purges may hinder China's military capabilities, particularly regarding potential operations against Taiwan, which Beijing claims as part of its territory.

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The 15th five-year plan is expected to emphasize industrial self-reliance, particularly in advanced semiconductor production, to mitigate the impact of U.S. sanctions. Xi Jinping aims to bolster China’s economy to support military ambitions, including a potential assault on Taiwan by 2027. However, experts warn that the focus on niche sectors may not address pressing domestic issues such as high youth unemployment and an aging population.

The Guardian

Ruby Osman, a senior policy adviser at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, noted that this year’s Two Sessions will outline not only immediate goals but also a broader strategy for navigating significant geopolitical and technological changes. She highlighted a potential "mismatch" between the government work report's short-term priorities and the long-term objectives of the five-year plan.

The Guardian

Critics argue that the ongoing military purges and a focus on specialized sectors may exacerbate existing economic challenges. The International Institute for Strategic Studies has pointed out that the significant vacancies in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could complicate any large-scale military operations, particularly against Taiwan.

The Straits Times

While the NPC and CPPCC have confirmed the removal of military officials, the reasons for these expulsions remain unspecified, leading to speculation about the internal dynamics of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Additionally, the anticipated GDP growth target has not been officially confirmed, with estimates varying among analysts.

The Guardian

• “Xi’s military purges will leave empty seats where senior officers once sat – a stark reminder that political loyalty is non-negotiable and that even top generals are expendable if they displease the top leader,” — Neil Thomas, Fellow, Asia Society

The Guardian

• “will make clear that Beijing sees innovative capacity – and the ability to shield itself from US pressures – as China’s real structural challenge” — Ruby Osman, Senior Policy Adviser, Tony Blair Institute for Global Change.

The Guardian