Nepal's Pivotal Parliamentary Election: A Response to Youth-Led Uprisings

Nepal is set to hold parliamentary elections on March 5, 2026, marking the first electoral exercise since the youth-led protests in September 2025 that resulted in the ousting of former Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli. The protests, which were fueled by widespread discontent over corruption and governance, led to significant violence, with 77 fatalities reported during the unrest. The movement's unprecedented participation of young people has shifted the political landscape, prompting calls for accountability and reform.

Nepalis are set to vote in the first election after protests ousted the previous government

The upcoming election is primarily a contest among three political parties: the National Independent Party (NIP), the Nepali Congress, and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist). The NIP, formed in 2022, is viewed as a front-runner, with its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah, a rapper-turned-politician who gained prominence during the protests. Shah's party has attracted large crowds, particularly among young voters seeking alternatives to established political entities. Meanwhile, the Nepali Congress and the Communists maintain loyal voter bases but face pressure to adapt to the demands of a younger electorate.

Nepalis are set to vote in the first election after protests ousted the previous government

Despite the significant role women played in the protests, their representation in the upcoming elections remains limited. Only 10% of the more than 3,400 candidates for direct elections are women, raising concerns about gender equity in political representation. The Constitution mandates that at least one-third of parliamentary seats be held by women, yet critics argue that this has allowed political parties to sideline women from directly elected positions. Activists and candidates like Ranju Darshana emphasize the need for women's voices in policy-making, highlighting the ongoing struggle for gender equality in Nepal's political landscape.

The Straits Times

The election is not only crucial for Nepal's internal governance but also for its geopolitical positioning between India and China. Nepal's economic dependence on India is significant, with over two-thirds of its trade conducted with its southern neighbor. Analysts suggest that India may prefer a coalition government that includes the Nepali Congress or the RSP, as this could help prevent a shift towards China. Conversely, Beijing has expressed support for the electoral process, aiming to maintain its influence in Nepal amid growing U.S. concerns over China's strategic presence.

The HinduNepalis are set to vote in the first election after protests ousted the previous government

Political analysts predict that the election will likely result in a hung parliament, necessitating coalition negotiations. Guna Raj Luitel, editor of Nagarik, remarked, "The people have very high expectations from the incoming government but the resources are very limited, so it will be difficult for them to meet all the aspirations." This sentiment reflects the challenges the next administration will face in addressing the demands of the youth-led protests while managing regional dynamics.

Nepalis are set to vote in the first election after protests ousted the previous government

While the election is anticipated to restore constitutional order, uncertainty remains regarding the formation of a stable government. Analysts have noted that a fractured parliament is a likely outcome, which could complicate governance and policy implementation in the wake of the protests.

The Hindu

• “This election, all the political parties, whether they are old or new, they are more focused on the youth.” — Bhojraj Pokharel, Political Analyst

Nepalis are set to vote in the first election after protests ousted the previous government

• “It is important that we build policies through the lens of women.” — Ranju Darshana, RSP Candidate

The Straits Times

• “A fractured Parliament, probably the most likely scenario, means that coalition negotiations will play a key role in shaping what comes next,” — Sanjay Upadhya, Nepali Author

The Hindu

This election represents a critical juncture for Nepal, as the outcome will not only influence domestic governance but also the country's external relations in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

The Hindu