San Francisco's Housing Crisis: A 124-Year Outlook

A recent study by researchers from UC Berkeley, UCLA, the Georgia Institute of Technology, and the University of Toronto indicates that San Francisco may take as long as 124 years to resolve its housing crisis. This projection persists despite the efforts of the Yes In My Backyard (YIMBY) movement, which advocates for reducing zoning restrictions and expediting housing construction. The study suggests that even with a 1.5% annual increase in housing supply—significantly higher than the city's current rate—affordability for a median one-bedroom apartment would remain elusive for decades. The primary issue, according to the researchers, is not merely the supply of housing but rather the wage disparity exacerbated by the influx of high-earning tech workers competing for limited housing.

San Francisco StandardNew York PostIn S.F., finding housing is hard. For immigrants, it’s even harder.

The median household income in San Francisco County surged from $69,354 in 2011 to $137,184 in 2024, highlighting a stark contrast with Los Angeles County, where the median income rose from $52,239 to $90,757 during the same period. This income disparity has intensified competition for housing, pushing lower-wage workers out of the market. Bora Ozturk, a developer, emphasized that the problem lies not in zoning but in construction costs, stating, “Nobody is starting construction until the costs come down.” Rising construction costs and the demolition of existing housing stock further complicate the situation.

San Francisco Standard

For immigrants, particularly those without legal status, the search for affordable housing is even more challenging. Many rely on informal networks to find housing, often resulting in substandard living conditions. Amy Aguilera, an organizer at PODER, noted that immigrants frequently accept poor living conditions due to desperation. The lack of documentation complicates the application process for formal housing, leading many to seek alternatives through friends, family, or community organizations. The limited availability of public housing options, which often require legal status, exacerbates the issue.

In S.F., finding housing is hard. For immigrants, it’s even harder.

San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie has initiated reforms to modernize the city's permitting system, aiming to streamline processes and reduce costs for developers. However, critics argue that these measures alone will not suffice. Max Buchholz, the lead researcher of the study, stated that addressing the housing crisis will likely require public financing and broader interventions beyond merely increasing supply. Laura Foote, executive director of YIMBY Action, acknowledged the movement's limited success, emphasizing the need for continued efforts to reform land-use policies.

New York Post

While the study presents a grim outlook for housing affordability, some developers and officials maintain that the YIMBY approach could still yield positive results if implemented effectively. However, the ongoing challenges of rising costs and economic disparities raise questions about the feasibility of such initiatives. The complexity of the housing crisis necessitates a multifaceted approach that considers both supply and economic factors.

San Francisco Standard

• “Both scenarios require enormous, localized shocks to the housing stock,” — Max Buchholz, Lead Researcher

New York Post

• “Nobody is starting construction until the costs come down.” — Bora Ozturk, Developer

New York Post

• “A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in.” — Laura Foote, Executive Director of YIMBY Action

San Francisco Standard

The future of San Francisco's housing market remains uncertain, with significant challenges ahead for both residents and policymakers.

New York Post